Blame America for all your troubles.


Having a great defense is always a good idea but if it isn’t backed up by a good offensive capability, then failure becomes inevitable for the oldest of reasons. Your great defense has to succeed every time in stopping every attack, but their offense only needs to succeed once for you to lose. That’s a … Continue reading

What’s it actually mean if the new Donbass republics join the Russian Federation?


It’s basically a game changer and one which as usual seems to have been totally unanticipated by the so-called “Kremlin watchers”. Hitherto, Russia has been conducting a Special Military Operation which comes with certain limitations. They’re not responding to an attack on sovereign Russian Federation territory but attacks on ethnic Russians in a neighbouring country. … Continue reading

Russia, America, China and the Ukraine.


At this moment in time, there are only three power blocks of any consequence in the world; China, Russia and America. China is walking a tightrope between allowing a limited form of capitalism to make it prosperous while at the same time keeping a strict Soviet style grip on its population. Russia is a populist … Continue reading

There are only three power blocks in the world – America.


In the previous two articles in the power blocks series, I discussed how the problem of an increasingly assertive Oligarchy turned out differently in China and Russia. The problem in both cases was that their own home-grown and foreign oligarchs wanted a bigger say in the actual running of the countries, if not to rule … Continue reading

Some geopolitical thoughts on what to watch for in 2019.


Foreword. From a very top slice analysis, there are four significant power blocks around the globe struggling for control of the next fifty or a hundred years of the world’s history. What follows is highly speculative, but sometimes when you play the what if game, some of the at face value options you might initially … Continue reading