What’s it actually mean if the new Donbass republics join the Russian Federation?


It’s basically a game changer and one which as usual seems to have been totally unanticipated by the so-called “Kremlin watchers”. Hitherto, Russia has been conducting a Special Military Operation which comes with certain limitations. They’re not responding to an attack on sovereign Russian Federation territory but attacks on ethnic Russians in a neighbouring country. … Continue reading

Rules.


All human activities across all societies no matter how politically arranged operate inside some sort of a framework of consensually agreed parameters. These parameters may be conventions, rules and even codified laws. Without them, building even the most simple society would be impossible since they enable the second most powerful feature of human beings – … Continue reading

Letting an octogenarian bull wearing high heels loose in a china shop.


Like most people who watched the highly orchestrated psycho-drama of Nancy Pelosi and whether she’d touch down in Taiwan or not on her magical mystery tour of parts oriental, i wondered why risk a war with China by a needless visit that was obviously designed to both provoke China over an issue that had laid … Continue reading

Putin begins to pick apart the EU.


A few weeks back In a piece entitled the winners and losers after the sledgehammer strike, I wrote the following about probably the biggest casualty of the whole sanctions disaster, the EU. “The obvious way for Russia to eliminate the EU as a threat is to destroy Germany. Kill Germany, the EU withers. It’s a … Continue reading

The winners and losers after the sledgehammer strike.


In the aftermath of the sledgehammer strike, it’s worth trying to have an informed guess as to what the new world will look like after all the pieces fall back to the ground and begin to be reassembled into a different jigsaw puzzle by geo-political forces. Who will be the winners, who will be the … Continue reading

The reaction to the sledgehammer by West block Europe.


First of all, let’s define terms. West block Europe is NATO and the EU combined since the latter is now totally perceived by the East block as nothing more than the hostile political arm of NATO being used to wage the economic sanctions war on Russia. The UK is a member of NATO but has … Continue reading

The Sledgehammer.


Over last weekend a conference called the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) took place. The chances are you might not even of heard it occurred but it did and what came out of it confirmed my worst fears of how dire a situation the US, EU and the West in general have managed to … Continue reading

When all the lying had to stop.


If you haven’t realised it yet, you must know by now that it was all a bloody pack of lies all along. And you’ve yet to feel the full impact of falling for it all. Your standard of living in the US, EU and Western Europe is dropping like a stone, your currencies are wrecked … Continue reading

Getting out of there while you’ve still got a shirt on your back.


A number of developments of late concerned with Russia’s “special military operation” have signalled a ground shift in the West’s whole approach to the thing. The first was various attempts by America to open some public channels of communication with the Russians. The Biden administration is massively concerned with PR and spin, but there’s no … Continue reading

Turning off the war


Of late you might have noticed the volume control knob of the anti-Russian hate propaganda machine in the media has been slowly turned down. An easy explanation for that is hate fatigue. A two minute hate anyone can handle but when it drags into three months of a non-stop barrage and you’re supposed to be … Continue reading

Remind me again, which country’s economy was sanctions going to devastate?


Before the whole Russia/Ukraine bomb went off in everyone’s face, the Biden administration told the world that if Russia invaded Ukraine, then they’d impose harsh sanctions on it. That would deter Russia we were assured by all the major figures of the administration. Putin evaluated the threat, tokened the odds and after making some advance … Continue reading

One foreign policy blunder being compounded by another.


There are times we’ve all met people in high authority who appear to be making moves you can’t quite understand, but usually that’s because they have access to information you don’t have or they’re executing a particularly Machiavellian plan. On the other hand, sometimes you realise in a blinding flash of insight into them that … Continue reading

Russia, America, China and the Ukraine.


At this moment in time, there are only three power blocks of any consequence in the world; China, Russia and America. China is walking a tightrope between allowing a limited form of capitalism to make it prosperous while at the same time keeping a strict Soviet style grip on its population. Russia is a populist … Continue reading

Is Biden blundering into a war with Russia?


If you can remember back to your schooldays when a subject called history was actually taught, you’ll probably recall that at some point you learnt about successions of ancient kings and how they became variously named Fred the Great or Edward the Useless or Cuthbert the Strong or Joseph the Walkover. When the genetic lottery … Continue reading

Redux from 20th October 2016 – I wouldn’t trust them with my security. Why should you?


Though written four years ago, this one touches on several issues of current interest. It was written a couple of weeks before Trump’s victory which laid waste to a lot of carefully laid plans, not to mention years of patient work and money. Mice and assorted men ran in all directions after the shock and … Continue reading

There are only three power blocks in the world – America.


In the previous two articles in the power blocks series, I discussed how the problem of an increasingly assertive Oligarchy turned out differently in China and Russia. The problem in both cases was that their own home-grown and foreign oligarchs wanted a bigger say in the actual running of the countries, if not to rule … Continue reading

There are only three power blocks in the world – Russia.


Between long bouts of silence and mulling over a cogent response, I’m actually a good listener. It’s the only way to learn anything. It often leads to interminable conversations to which my minimal contribution is nothing more than the customary nodding until I feel the onset of logic chip meltdown and suddenly remember my perm … Continue reading

Some geopolitical thoughts on what to watch for in 2019.


Foreword. From a very top slice analysis, there are four significant power blocks around the globe struggling for control of the next fifty or a hundred years of the world’s history. What follows is highly speculative, but sometimes when you play the what if game, some of the at face value options you might initially … Continue reading

Russia 3, Greenpeace 2.


I like the Russians. You spend enough time studying a foreign people, you sort of fall in love with them, because that’s the beginning of understanding them and their country in any real sense. The accent is on liking the people rather than the leadership, who’re what you’re supposed to be focusing on. Despite how … Continue reading

Russia 2, Greenpeace 1.


One of my simple pleasures in life is to spend an occasional evening watching a good sporting event with friends. We all come clinking along with whatever booze we prefer and a few emergency nibbles. It’s usually an evening of decent sport, a little too much to drink and giving each other a hard time … Continue reading