Some geopolitical thoughts on what to watch for in 2019.


Foreword. From a very top slice analysis, there are four significant power blocks around the globe struggling for control of the next fifty or a hundred years of the world’s history. What follows is highly speculative, but sometimes when you play the what if game, some of the at face value options you might initially … Continue reading

Russia 3, Greenpeace 2.


I like the Russians. You spend enough time studying a foreign people, you sort of fall in love with them, because that’s the beginning of understanding them and their country in any real sense. The accent is on liking the people rather than the leadership, who’re what you’re supposed to be focusing on. Despite how … Continue reading

Russia 2, Greenpeace 1.


One of my simple pleasures in life is to spend an occasional evening watching a good sporting event with friends. We all come clinking along with whatever booze we prefer and a few emergency nibbles. It’s usually an evening of decent sport, a little too much to drink and giving each other a hard time … Continue reading

Political fracture points and power vacuums.


A political fracture point is a sudden and radical change in the political landscape. In classical times, it would be the collapse of an empire, such as the Roman Empire. In the last century, World War I resulted in the outright destruction of several, such as the German Empire, and ultimately fatal damage to others, … Continue reading