The Ukraine war – the military realities.

If you’ve any lingering belief in the worth of the mainstream media’s authority, you’ve no doubt watched them interviewing various old fogey generals who’re offering various opinions on how the Red Army is really screwing up the Ukrainian campaign. It only takes a moment’s reflection to realise they all generalled lightning quick wins against essentially third world armies which were followed by decades long agonising guerrilla wars of resistance which ended up in humiliating retreats like the roof of the US embassy in Saigon in ’75 or more recently Kabul airport in ’21.

The West picks its enemies carefully and always uses the same quick win strategy every time. A rolling three day air offensive by high tech airplanes piloted by men wired up on three day sleep-free jags of some variety of meth-amphetamine until they keel over to be replaced by the next tranche of wired bots. Once the command and control and infrastructure has been pulverised, the opposing army having sheltered from air raids for days, out of food and water and with no coherent command structure left surrender in hordes.

There’s elements of that method to making war in Russia’s approach but there is a significant difference too. The accent on how they make war is not on totally destroying the enemy’s support infrastructure but just the critical juncture points they know the enemy needs. What they concentrate on is destroying the enemies army, not their bricks and mortar. The way the current conflict in the Ukraine is being fought is a classic example of that approach.

Formations in modern armies are usually roughly classified into As, Bs or Cs. A class A formation are usually young, volunteers, highly-motivated, well trained and equipped. A B unit is usually conscripts, lowish motivation and just trying to serve out their period of conscription without doing anything heroic like getting their heads shot off.

The C units are what’s left. Older, sometimes on special diets, armed with obsolescent equipment, a dumping ground for incompetent officers and basically only fit for sedentary duties like garrisoning cities captured by the A class units. At a certain point, even the village idiot in every hamlet in the Donbass knew the Russians were coming in and it’d be via the eastern part of the Ukraine. And indeed, the initial invasion was from the East and the Ukrainians reacted exactly as the Russians expected by rushing all their A units eastwards to blunt the soviet advance.

Once the Ukrainian A units were totally committed to the engagement, the trap was sprung. Russia invaded from the north and indirectly from the south with the full intention of enveloping 60,000 Ukrainian troopers which they’ve succeeded in doing. That was what they called phase one. It’s U.S.Grant’s philosophy about how to fight a war against any enemy – you totally destroy their army. Find ’em, fix ’em and then destroy them. The apparent pause in the war at the moment is just the Red Army assembling massive overwhelming force before eliminating the massive Donbass pocket. It’ll kick off anyday soon.

In a smaller way, the port city of Mariupol has just fallen to the same massive encirclement tactic with over a thousand Ukrainian marines, that’s to say A troops, surrendering and what’s left of the Azov brigade and some foreign mercenaries holding out in a sprawling steelworks because they’ve got a pretty good idea the Russians are in no mood to be accepting any surrendering from the likes of them. Russians have long memories especially about the torture and murder of Russian POWS. Things will be done, revenge will be taken.

There are some other military fictions you’ve been fed by western propaganda who only seem to regurgitate handouts from the Ukrainian war ministry. There was never an attempt by the Russians to assault and capture the city of Kiev. They merely surrounded it to prevent it sending any help to the 60 thousand troops trapped in the Donbass enclave. Any “retreat” from around Kiev was merely Russia rotating in fresh troops to replace those who’d sliced through Ukrainian forces supposed to defend the capital.

In case you haven’t realised it, the performance by the Ukrainian army has been piss poor. They’ve been badly generalled and promised help that never appeared by their leaders who were lying through their teeth. Courtesy of a lying western press, the Ukrainians appear to be winning on all fronts but the truth is exactly the bloody opposite, with bloody being the operative word. The fantasy of a small plucky army heroically throwing back a massive flood of Red Army forces is even starting to crumble. What the western press were touting as an invasion force of 150,000 Russians now looks to be about 60,000 men, a fraction of what the Russians can call on but enough to do the job.

What you have to get through your head is that despite an avalanche of anti-Russian propaganda in the western media, the Russian people are very happy at how their boss man is conducting this war, hence the 83% approval rating he currently enjoys. That’s a number the western leaders trying to kick off a real shooting war against Russia can only dream of.

When the Donbass pocket is eliminated, the Russians may start winding down their war machine but my feeling is that ending the war might make for some determined efforts by the West rather than Russia. The Minsk 1 & 2 agreements were supposed to settle things after the 2014 war but since the Ukrainians abetted by the West totally ignored the concords and kept creeping NATO eastwards, my feeling is Russia will not be interested in a Minsk 3 accord that’ll just turn out to be yet another pause before the necessary next invasion of the Ukraine in ten years time.

The Russian strategic goals were always well defined and stated, legitimising the annexation of the Crimea, setting up the two Donbass republics, de-nazification and securing the Mariupal port city, but with the way the Ukrainian clown leadership is pissing around with peace talks in Turkey, it might just be easier to take over the Ukraine completely, throwing some western bits to the Poles and some southern bits to the Hungarians. Historically, those bits are theirs anyway. The other alternative is to adopt the western style of war – simply build a north/south border chopping off eastern Ukraine and then use remote missile technology to bomb the whole of the Ukraine infrastructure back into the stone age.

One of the nastier surprises produced by this conflict is the Russian usage of some pinpoint accurate weapons we thought were basically hypothetical but have turned out to be very real. Things such as hyper-sonic missiles the West has absolutely no defense against. We don’t even have that weapon, never mind any means of stopping it getting through.

The neo-cons and neo-liberals got their cold war against the East block but I don’t think they’ve yet to realise the havoc it’ll wreak on western economies, but my feeling is they’ll begin to realise it in the coming year along with something else, we’re going to need Russian help to climb out of the economic hole we’ve dug our self into. If Putin turns off the tap of natural gas and oil to western Europe, the dominoes start to fall and there’s no stopping them.

Turning off this war to Russia’s satisfaction may prove to be a difficult proposition.

©Pointman

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Comments
16 Responses to “The Ukraine war – the military realities.”
  1. Margaret H Smith says:

    Real food for thought here. Thank you.

    (Double ‘them’ in paragraph 7)

    (Fixed, thank you Margaret. Pointy)

    Like

  2. philjourdan says:

    Interesting analysis. I do not have your military background, but we will see how correct you are in due time. MY analysis is – if the fake news is touting it, Believe the opposite. And I am batting 1000 within 6-18 months. So I do not believe any of the storylines the fake news media is feeding us, and even now, most of the conservative press, in this part of the world.

    Your analysis sounds realistic. Putin is not an idiot. But things did not go well for his Navy either. Lucky shot? Do not know. But as I opened this comment with, we will know soon enough.

    I am definitely not on Ukraine’s side as Zelenskyy seems bound and determined to start WW III, causalities be damned! I do not trust the man. Nor have I all of a sudden forgotten that the fake news media is always wrong as some (Sean Hannity!) apparently have.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Erny72 says:

      I totally agree with your assessment of the fake news and the presstitutes who peddle it.
      If you are looking for sober opinion on the Ukraine war (in addition to Pointy’s 20/20 insight that is), I would reccomend Alex and Alexander at The Duran (https://rumble.com/c/theduran), The Vinyard of the Saker (https://thesaker.is/), Andrey Martinyev at Reminiscence of the Future (https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/, plus he posts regular SITREPS on YouTube) and if you can keep up, Iurii Podoliaka’s two daily posts on YouTube or Telegram are very highly recommended, although unless you understand Russian, you’ll have to read Google’s auto-generated subtitles quick quickly as he says a lot in short order, but his insight really is worth the effort.
      Otherwise, if you have a telelgram account, there are good sources of ‘Twitter depth’ reports (such as the bight sized reports one can expect from social media) from behind the cancellation curtain, Intel Slava Z, Donbass Insider, Inessa S, ASB Military News and Graham Phillips Journalist have useful coverage in (mostly) english language, Juan Sinmiedo/Fearless John, Patrick Lancaster and Maximillian Clarke cover the impact on civilian populations behind the line of contact (meaning primarily they report on how the Ukrainian armed forces treat ‘their own’ civilians) and there are of course many russian language channels which can apparently be auto translated when viewed on a smart phone including Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, ANNA_NEWS and Kadyrov_95 (yes, that Kadyrov).
      I haven’t bothered with the fake news other than to occassionally see just how unconvincing the bullshit is, so I can understand why family, friends and colleagues (who still haven’t unplugged themselves from the British Bullshit Creators or the Clown Newspeak Network) are talking such blinkered crap when the subject comes up.

      Like

  3. Pointman says:

    More countries agree to ruble payments for natural gas – Russian deputy PM

    https://www.rt.com/business/553939-countries-ruble-payments-gas/

    If you listen carefully, you can hear the death of the petro dollar. Just wait until Putin insists on ruble payment for oil and all other commodities supplied by Russia ….

    Pointman

    Like

    • Graeme No.3 says:

      Thanks for clarifying the situation in The Ukraine.
      Putin has offered the arrangement that European nations wanting oil & gas can pay the Gazprom bank in Euros and it will be converted into rubles, thus letting them maintain the fiction that they aren’t giving money to Russia.
      Practically all of Europe needs Russian oil & gas to prevent economic collapse. Some are starting to think that relying on others for essential goods & materials isn’t a good idea. It may take years for this to float upwards to the top of the EU but the sooner the better, or else the EU could disintegrate. Hungary (and to a lesser extent Poland) are already thinking that the EU isn’t perfect.
      We have an election going in Australia where neither main parties are thinking at all about the future, and as far as I can see neither are the general public as they try to pick which will be the less incompetent.

      Like

  4. Richard Ilfeld says:

    For forty years, Harvard business school types have been teaching us that suppliers picked for geographic convenience and cultural compatibility, vertical integration, modest inventories, and source diversity were all costs to be wrung out of a business; that’s mostly how hedge funds taking over businesses made money….these things now seem to look like modestly priced insurance policies. “lies to the public” are not only about military matters.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. another ian says:

    “Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop
    April 17, 2022 | sundance | 110 Comments”

    “The only way Twitter, with 217 million users, could exist as a viable platform is if they had access to tech systems of incredible scale and performance, and those systems were essentially free or very cheap. The only entity that could possibly provide that level of capacity and scale is the United States Government – combined with a bottomless bank account. A public-private partnership.

    If my hunch is correct, Elon Musk is poised to expose the well-kept secret that most social media platforms are operating on U.S. government tech infrastructure and indirect subsidy. Let that sink in.

    The U.S. technology system, the assembled massive system of connected databases and server networks, is the operating infrastructure that offsets the cost of Twitter to run their own servers and database. The backbone of Twitter is the United States government.”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/17/jacks-magic-coffee-shop/

    And then

    “t looks as if the “Deep State” is involved now

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is going to investigate Musk

    The Deep State wants to be able to censor any totally open platforms to suppress any other political positions”

    Like

  6. another ian says:

    Col. Macgregor

    Liked by 1 person

  7. fernando says:

    What’s with the picture of the Russian women soldiers?

    Like

    • Erny72 says:

      They’re hot. Surely that’s reason enough.

      Like

    • Pointman says:

      Once a year, the Russian army allows their women soldiers to wear makeup while in uniform to honour the women who fought the Nazis in the Great Patriotic War. As long as they don’t go crazy, they’re allowed wide latitude.

      The red star is an unmistakable message – we’re the Red Army at war, what the letters underneath it stand for I’ve no idea.

      Pointy

      Like

      • Erny72 says:

        The letters on her cheek are M R Yu Tse, ‘Ducking’ for that acronym lands on a few pages describing ‘Interspecific Regional Training Centers’ (межвидовой региональный учебный центр), for signals troops (65th and 623rd) and engineering troops (187th).
        Resulting from a fairly cursory search, I doubt that’s an exhaustive list.

        Like

  8. Fen says:

    The most interesting aspect of all this for me has been the level of Ukrainian propaganda directed at sites like Instapundit. It was clumsy, ie. anyone with even an objective opinion that didn’t condemn Russia got smeared as “Putin Bots”, and in ways that were so irrational they screamed “Propagandists attempting to intimidate and silence other points of view”. It was so bad that I have to leave open the possibility it was Russian ops designed to poison any information coming out of Ukraine. Ha.

    Like

  9. another ian says:

    Somewhat O/T

    Relayed from Chiefio

    And he wonders where that fits in with Musk’s satellite network

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2022/04/12/florida-first-w-o-o-d-12-april-2022/#comment-156160

    And down

    “Be sure to catch the bit at 11:25. The host of a TV show (Morning Joe) says: “Elon could actually control what people think. That’s our job.”

    Like

  10. forestree says:

    Reblogged this on Forestree’s Weblog and commented:
    Excellent analysis of current situation in Ukraine!

    Like

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