Some geopolitical thoughts on what to watch for in 2019.

Foreword.

From a very top slice analysis, there are four significant power blocks around the globe struggling for control of the next fifty or a hundred years of the world’s history. What follows is highly speculative, but sometimes when you play the what if game, some of the at face value options you might initially consider outrageous, start to look not so far-fetched.

There’s absolutely nothing to stop such a quasi-predictive analysis being completely blown out of the water by an obscure incident in South Ossetia in the coming year. Gowon, find it on a map and think a century ago of people across the world wondering just who the bloody hell was the Archduke Ferdinand anyway? In the main, it’s all predicated on the continuance of the already demonstrated pragmatic mindsets of the two most powerful men in the world – Trump and Putin.

The speculations are nothing more than my understanding of where things currently are and some idle musings of where they might possibly be at the end of next year, and perhaps further out.

America.

The first and obviously the most powerful block, both politically and militarily, is the United States. The lost ground conceded by the toe-curlingly bad presidency of Barack Obama has largely been recovered by Trump, who unlike Obama when he turns up at foreign summits, is there to kick ass and take names, and to tack on that old punch line as a finisher – he’s fresh out of paper. Obama spent all his time at those international occasions apologising for America’s very existence, and it didn’t go down well at home or in a few places abroad. For instance, such needless grovelling to globalism and various third world and third-rate dictators didn’t exactly engender confidence in places like the old Soviet vassal states who depended on a strong America to protect them from the Russian bear pawing at their borders.

Trump’s two-pronged attack on the established shambles of America’s foreign relations with Europe was quite simple. You all solemnly swear at NATO meetings, with some honourable exceptions like Poland and Hungary, to contribute a certain percentage of GDP to NATO, but the money somehow never quite arrives, so historically America makes up the shortfall. That’s not going to happen anymore, boys and girls. Cough up your fair share or the NATO budget goes on an emergency F Plan diet.

The second is, you’ve been allowed to export your goods into America with not much in the way of tariffs, while at the same time slapping on prohibitive tariffs on American goods entering your trade zones. That’s not going to happen anymore either, or you’ll get the same sort of punitive tariffs we slapped on the Canadians until Twinkle Toes Trudeau came to his senses. We’ve a big enough domestic market to absorb the loss of the small amount of trade with you that your tariffs were specifically designed to keep small. Bottom line, our domestic businesses can produce any of your goods I price out of the American market and we can afford a trade war, you can’t, so there’s going to be some adjustment in tariffs to that unfair trade balance.

His foreign policy outside Europe carries a simple message. America is back and prepared to use its economic and military muscle to claw back the ground and influence lost by the dithering, corrupt and essentially weak Obama administration. While that may sound a bit harsh, the good news is that Trump likes to make deals that are acceptable to all parties concerned, while at the same time, he won’t let America be taken advantage of. Obviously, while there will inevitably be some future alarums and excursion in foreign policy matters, for the moment he’s largely got it settled to his satisfaction.

Domestically, the economic figures have never looked better. GDP is on the way to 4%, unemployment is on a low with hundreds of thousands of people getting back into the jobs pool. Most pleasingly for Trump, Black and Hispanic unemployment is on lows never seen before. Industries like petrochemical and mining have had the Obama-era DNR sticker removed from their forehead and are coming back to life, with America just having become a net exporter of energy. Concurrent with intelligent management of the economy, the stimulus of tax cuts, the culling of job-killing regulations and energy prices nearly one-third of those in Europe, the economy is firing on all cylinders.

All is not so rosy though. There are several problems that need to be addressed. There is a fundamental breakdown in the process of conducting elections honestly and it is being done with the active connivance of politicised law enforcement departments in certain jurisdictions and a justice system that day by day looks to have been politically subverted as the rule of law crumbles. The legal concept of recusing oneself from making rulings in areas you have patently an active conflict of interest in seems, like the proverbial baby, to have been thrown out with the bath water.

The FBI and the DoJ have suffered serious reputational damage and to put it bluntly, are no longer trusted by the citizenry as they once were. In certain areas like the second amendment, the municipal legislative organs are operating seemingly on the basis that they can override the articles of the constitution by simply passing what is essentially local ordinances. He has to get that entrenched corruption under control, or the 2020 elections are going to look like pure banana republic.

When an electorate are cheated out of having a say in who governs them, they either accept it and don’t bother to vote again because it’s a futile exercise, or they take up the arms that they’re allowed by the 2nd amendment, because that’s exactly why it was added to the constitution – to fight against the tyranny of their own governance, whether that’s at a state or federal level. As Lincoln said, “America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.”

There are bigger problems though. The first is a feral news media that totally lacks any checks or balances. They’re totally biased to a liberal viewpoint that’s at odds with the opinions of half of America and are quite prepared to fabricate what’s become known as fake news in furtherance of their own political agenda.

I was watching some old clips of the election night 2016 results coming in, and as the so-called journalists, both men and women, slowly realised Trump was going to win, I was astonished to see them ‘effing and blinding on live TV like troopers and acting like their obvious favourite Clinton losing was somehow the end of the world. Was this foul-mouthed tirade of filth really being broadcast live and nationwide by supposedly respectable news outlets to what is still an essentially conservative America with a small “c”? Words and phrases like cocksucker, fuck, cock holster, bum boy and worse seem to have entered into common parlance on mass broadcast programs. Just how long is it going to be before news and current affairs programs get a PG rating?

These people were acting like their job wasn’t to report the news to you, but to act out their own little psycho-drama of being distraught and outraged news divas, and have subsequently spent the last two years acting like spoilt children, while all the time not so subtly egging on extremist groups like antifa to commit more and more excessive acts of violence, sometimes when police departments had been instructed by local politicians not to intervene. Sensation has always sold in the news business, but the traditional nod towards maintaining some sort of semblance of objective reportage no longer exists, even in gesture.

Needless to say, this compulsive behaviour pattern of reporting only a parody of balanced news, and instead concentrating on some media driven coup d’etat against a democratically elected president not to their taste, has damaged them. Two years of this outright political crusade posing as journalism has produced nothing more than a drop in earnings, a complete implosion of their credibility and newsrooms suffering wave after wave of redundancies.

For instance, Mark Dice, an independent vblogger producing content on a laptop on his kitchen table, gets nearly a third of the hits that CNN does in an average evening. How the mighty have fallen. If you like, the free internet is taking over the commentary role the MSN used to perform, but even there with the monopoly internet giants like Google, Twitter and Facebook, there’s increasingly a creeping form of partisan censorship which is becoming more brutal and pervasive on a daily basis. They’re essentially abusing their monopoly positions to impose their politics on their consumers by selectively suppressing free speech.

Again, I think Trump will have to address this problem of online censorship, since it’s a direct violation of the 1st Amendment by a handful of internet monopolies abusing their dominant position. Break them up or regulate them seems to be the only two options.

To compound the problem, the entertainment industry is converging with fake news and internet censorship to totally exclude any viewpoint that isn’t congruent with their liberal sentiments. Of course, Hollywood, like fake news, is suffering the consequences with plunging earnings as they lose customers fed up with the constant barrage of propaganda thinly disguised as entertainment. The internet giants will suffer the same earnings hit eventually, because whatever internet service it is you’re providing, there’s never a shortage of new competition, should a notoriously fickle consumer base get fed up or offended with your offering.

To be fair, the problem of abuse of a monopoly position with news, the media and internet censorship is not wholly confined to the US, but seems to be a worldwide problem, which basically pushes a globalist agenda on populations which increasingly object to it.

The other problem is the internecine race war that the Obama administration, in my opinion, deliberately fomented in furtherance of its strategy of identity politics in order to bounce the Black and Hispanic vote into their lap. In Trump’s first year, it seemed an insoluble problem since the liberal propaganda had convinced non-white Americans that Trump was a racist, but in the second, it seems to have become less of a problem, especially with the emergence of young black Americans who no longer feel they somehow have to give the Dems some sort of automatic knee-jerk allegiance.

After all, the party has done absolutely nothing for them in over a century and a half, quite the reverse actually. It’s spearheaded by mainly young people and with a meme like “leaving the plantation” and latterly Blexit – the black exit from the Dem party – it seems to be increasing in strength, especially as black unemployment is at lows never seen before. Trump is delivering for black Americans the one thing they’ve needed for decades – jobs, and plenty of them.

Russia.

The next player is Russia. There’s a phrase I read in a novel some years ago, the Russian knight is dying inside his rusting suit of armour, to the best of my recall, from a novel by John le Carré. It was true then and despite appearances, it’s even more true now. The Russians have only one aircraft carrier left, which is always followed discreetly five nautical miles behind by a tug, because it breaks down so frequently and requires its embarrassing services before the carrier is grounded somewhere on someone else’s coast. Rescuing 5,000 men off a carrier, which is actually a small floating town, with the bottom ripped out of it on a foreign shore, would be a PR disaster that would put the Kursk to shame.

By necessity, it had to be put into dry dock recently for repairs. There was an unfortunate accident there which resulted in one fatality, several injuries and damaged the carrier seriously. Temporarily, they now have no carriers to deploy, which is somewhat of an embarrassment for a supposed superpower which by definition has to be able to project force into any corner of the globe.

The only semi-effective arm of the remains of the old USSR’s arsenal is the rocket force, or the nuclear deterrent. By rumour, it’s not in great shape either, but still plenty good enough to do the job, despite the technology being thought to be aged. They can initiate or reply with nuclear-tipped rockets, but even this is looking a bit suspect both from the aspect of political will and the technicalities of delivering megadeath. By political will, I mean that Putin is essentially a nationalist lacking the messianic zeal of his forebears to spread communism abroad, because nowadays it doesn’t exist in Russia anyway. If pushed into a corner, he would of course come out swinging, but I think his eye is mainly concentrated on smothering at birth certain developments in Western Europe.

At the height of the Cuban missile crisis in 1963, a lot of studies were consulted which were mainly produced by the at the time prestigious Rand Corporation, which gamed out various escalating nuclear strike scenarios. Mini-max solutions, saddle backs etc and a host of supposedly smart moves derived from the infant field of study called games theory which was being applied to a freshly nuclear weaponised age. It was all highly respected and more or less complete rubbish originating as it turned out primarily from the paranoid mind of a full-blown schizophrenic.

It was all variations on the illusory idea of some sort of controlled escalation of a nuclear war – you hit Boston, we’ll hit Krasnoyarsk, we hit Kharkov, you hit Pittsburgh. If JFK did one thing right in his all too brief presidency, it was not letting himself get inveigled into such immoral arithmetic of tit for tat megadeath and the demographics of destroying equal amounts of industrial capacity. He threw away all of the Rand corporation game scripts and thereby scared the living daylights out of everybody, most especially the grand strategists on both sides, because suddenly they were into a whole new world they’d never gamed.

His direct message to premier Khrushchev was quite simple when you boiled off all the diplomatic flummery – if just one nuke arrives on American soil, irrespective of whether it was launched from Cuba or the USSR, we’ll launch everything we’ve got at the both of you. Everything. Which do you believe in? The inevitability of Marxist-Leninist history and the coming victory of Communism over Capitalism, or both of us nuking each other back into the stone age? Khrushchev wisely decided to negotiate his way out of the crisis he himself had created. Einstein had said less than a decade prior to the Cuban crisis that if WW III was fought with nuclear weapons, the next one would be fought with sticks and rocks. Perhaps they’d heard that warning.

With Trump, Putin knows that a strong political will like Kennedy’s is back in the White House. He won’t be bullied like the ineffectual Obama, who talked a great battle about lines being drawn and then when that was ignored, rather childishly switching to red lines being drawn in the sand, just as Putin walked over every one of them one after another to do things like brazenly annex territory in the Crimea and get a military toe hold in the Near East while Obama did exactly nothing in response.

Obama was always a scaredy cat president, and every foreign leader after they’d stripped off the adulatory sycophancy of the American media, sensed it, and therefore took outrageous liberties with him. Trump won’t stand for that sort of humiliation or disrespect of America, as president Assad found out when a shower of cruise missiles wiped out a quarter of his air force. Trump didn’t even bother drawing a line, red or otherwise, before he gave Assad a slap.

Interestingly, someone tipped off the Russians one hour before the missiles arrived, to get their “advisers” out of the target areas. Even more interesting, the Russians didn’t tip-off the Syrians about what was coming their way in less than sixty minutes, otherwise they might not get the timely warning next time. Big boys play by their own set of rules and are averse to springing nasty surprises on each other unless it’s absolutely necessary. Raggedy assed client states like Syria simply don’t get an invite to that high table.

Putin knows it’s the time to consolidate all the gains he made by walking all over Obama, so for now stay quiet and leave Trump well alone. That’s been the steady game plan for the last two years and barring any serious emergencies, I see no reason why he needs to change it.

Another factor in Putin keeping a low profile is that increasingly, the old status quo supplied by the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) seems undermined by the advances in weapons technology. Most particularly, the generational fold leap in Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) technology that the green shoots of which could be seen emerging as far back as the First Gulf War. Like the old and false idea that the bomber will always get through proved to have serious caveats, the concept and therefore the assurance of MAD, looks increasingly suspect.

There has never been that ultimate weapon to which no counter response could not be developed, and you’d be a fool to think our times are somehow unique in that respect.

Putin wasn’t originally a politician and entered it sideways from the military rank of Lieutenant Colonel of the now defunct KGB. Wouldn’t it be nice to believe the former organisations and people of the Okhrana, OGPU, GRU, NKVD, KGB, GRU and more recently the FSB all disappeared with each reorganisation and renaming, but let’s not pursue fantasies here, though you could very easily add the CIA, NSA, FBI, MI5, MI6 and all the other three-letter acronym organisations for all the utility they’ve shown over the years. Think of the warnings they never gave about surprises like Pearl Harbour, operation Barbarossa, the Berlin Wall coming down, the collapse of the USSR, 9/11 and all the others.

In a strange way, I think he shares a certain military influenced view of the world with Trump, whose secondary level of education was at a military academy where he graduated as captain of his class. It’s perhaps ironic, but despite what you might think, they share a lot of common features; genuinely nationalistic and patriotic, extremely public personas, almost flamboyantly so, tough guy façades while at the same time intensely private individuals. They both also know the sadness of losing an older brother they loved dearly when they were young, and that sort of passionate grief has a way of either crushing you or burning into you and growing you up fast.

When Putin and Trump exchanged smiles at the recent centenary in Paris of the end of the Great War, the fake news media in its irrational way went mad, but if they could have seen beyond their pathological hatred of both men, they should have been reassured. Both of them are well in touch with the realities of what a nuclear tiff between their respective countries would result in.

If Putin, like a wolf, sniffs weakness in a leader, he strikes. No question of that. It’s okay to assassinate dissidents on UK soil because May is weak, but Trump’s America is off-limits to such acts of studied disdain to another country’s sovereignty. He respects strength, and is perhaps waiting for a corrupt political system in America to pull down Trump. He, like Trump, always plays the wait and see, the long game. A long patient stalk, followed by a quick pounce.

There is another consideration a Russian friend explained to me. Putin, just like Trump, is extremely popular with their average citizens, despite what the Western press might say about either of them. The fake polls and fake news in the Western media are always against them, but the ordinary bloke in the street, whether that street is in Louisville, Kentucky or Magnitogorsk in the district of Chelyabinsk, just loves them and that’s the simple reality, whether you like it or not. But my friend also sees some downsides to what the collapse of the USSR and Russia’s subsequent recovery has produced. It’s given the younger generation of Russia a taste of honey, and they want more.

The raw naked devotion to Communism and the altruistic romance of it that was displayed in the Great Patriotic War, which is what the Russians call WWII, has been replaced by baser motives in his opinion. They want CDs, Internet, more stylish clothes, MacDonalds, a quick shag and wonder how they can become a multi-billionaire overnight without actually lifting a finger to achieve that ambition.

My friend’s a man with boots on the ground whose opinion I trust, but despite his assessment of the modern Russian generation, I can’t help but remember his people took an estimated twenty million deaths in the Great Patriotic War and still came back to scatter the powdered remains of the Wehrmacht over the snowy windblown wastes of the Russian steppes. You have to bear in mind that horrendous amount of blood-letting in contrast to the 400,000 Americans who lost their lives in the same war, when you consider Russia’s attitude to western Europe.

Europe.

Europe, in the shape of the EU, would be the third power block, but it’s in such chaos at the moment, any conjectures as to where it might be at the end of 2018, never mind 2019 can only be highly speculative. I, like more than a few EU watchers, think it’ll implode well before it reaches its obvious intention of becoming the United States of Europe (USE). If you recall how quickly the USSR disintegrated after the fall of the Berlin Wall in ’89, there are more than a few potential triggers like that which could totally collapse the house of cards in the very near future.

If you’ve a taste for history and in your youth were persistent enough to read Gibbon’s classic volumes The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (don’t by the way, life is simply too bloody short), the history and current state of the EU is like a Lilliputian-scale parody of those cataclysmic events of ancient times.

It started off in the aftermath of WW II and was called the European Economic Community (EEC), which basically set out a free trade area between participants and dropped all protectionist tariffs between them. Because everybody in their right mind knows real free trade is always good for all parties concerned, the EEC expanded almost geometrically. What you lose on the swings, you’ll more than get back on the roundabouts. Everybody wanted in. As long as you were inside it, there were no interior trade tariffs. Anyone outside had to pay export tariffs to access the common market, which protected your home industries from outsiders.

Given its original and essential function of dismantling tariffs and regulations between member nations, no electoral process to its ruling committees was required, just some sort of say in the whatever it was doing proportionate to each member state’s trading power. However, wheels started coming off the EEC when it morphed into the European Union (EU). The EU, unlike the EEC, is a political union, an attempt at forcing the birth of the United States of Europe, which has always been the final agenda of internationalists who’ve morphed into globalists in recent decades.

It has a European parliament with Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) elected to it, but they don’t have any real power to initiate, frame or veto any of the EU legislation that overrules any domestic legislation of the member states. It’s just an ineffectual gravy train and talk shop to all its emasculated MEPs. The actual legislation is produced by unelected and therefore unaccountable committees of faceless bureaucrats.

By my last count, it has seven presidents of various things, all of whom are of course unelected by voters and the leading one of whom is Jean-Claude Junker. His previous experience of running anything was a biblically corrupt administration in the postage stamp-sized country of Luxembourg (you’ll have to zoom in on it to find it on a map), which is where all the huge tax avoiders like Amazon are domiciled for European tax purposes. They end up paying bugger all in the way of tax. Patently, his work experience there is not helping him out with scaling up to running something as big as the EU, and the strain is beginning to tell on the poor fellow.

His breakfast appears to consist of Kellogg’s corn flakes and three stiff Scotches, so the common wisdom runs that if you want to get any sense out of him, you better do it in the morning, because he’s usually wasted after lunch. He recently shuffled up onto a podium wearing one black and one brown shoe. The cover story is that it’s caused by sciatica of all things, but after his latest performance at an EU summit of ruffling a woman’s tresses as a greeting, blocking the lens of a camera filming him and throwing his papers from the speaker’s lectern onto the floor beside him before tossing back a glass of something transparent, it’s obvious he’s drunk again. The fact that he’s still in place is a sad comment on the sinecure-like status of a senior EU appointment.

It’s major flaw is it’s run by people who’re not elected and therefore not accountable to anybody, and that shows in the autocratic way it’s run.

There’s simply no concept of any accountability or the separation of powers in both its governing structure and in the way it operates. If you object to that state of affairs, its propaganda arm in the shape of the mass media will label you as variously populist, nationalist, extreme right and cruelest cut of all, stigmatise you as being racist. If that’s not enough to subdue you, the next step is to threaten to withhold the pennies due to you as a member, and if even that doesn’t bring you to heel, you’re going to get treated to the use of violent force, which is the endpoint that’s already been reached in France, which is teetering on the very edge of a revolution.

All across Europe, the penny is dropping about the true nature of the EU. It is in both word and deed nothing more than a dictatorship masking itself behind the classic self-serving notion of seeing itself as being a benevolent dictatorship that knows what’s best for the people. It exercises, with complete disregard to the wishes of its vassal states, an unelected authority which overrules the national laws, budgets and more importantly the culture, customs and mores of its members.

If your laws allow you to deport an illegal immigrant who is an habitual criminal offender, then their way out is an appeal to the yet again unelected European Court of Human Rights, who always seem to rule on the side of the scumbags, so you get stuck with them.

Your economy is suffering and you need to adjust interest rates to get the ship of state back on an even keel? Forget about it, you’re in the Euro zone, so interest rates in most essential areas are set in Brussels and again by an unelected committee. Unelected. Spotting a pattern here? That’s what forced Brexit in the end. Unelected distant bureaucrats ruling your country, not some little Englander bigotry.

This one size fits all Euro currency is crippling the economies of the so-called PIGS – Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, where youth unemployment is running at 25% or higher in some areas. Things won’t be improving for them either, as they try to service mountains of debt to the EU. They’re struggling to hit the interest payments, austerity regimes seemingly with no end in sight and Germany have basically refused to write them any more cheques.

The final straw was Merkel bulling through the objections of EU states to allow nearly two million Muslim migrants from the third world into Europe. They’re nearly all young men and simply unemployable since they’re illiterate, even in their own languages, but are smart enough to burrow straight into the state welfare system for the rest of their lives, thereby necessitating a wave of crippling tax rises on anyone holding down a job in a member state.

Culturally, mass unchecked migration has been a complete disaster. Small countries like Sweden have been totally overwhelmed, with their cultural heritage virtually annihilated. All the migrants do is set up no go areas, chase the police out of them with hand grenades and Kalashnikovs and start doing various illegal businesses such as selling drugs in broad daylight. When you also add in the twin impacts of murderous terrorist attacks by fanatics deliberately planted in the migration, and the number of violent rape and sex attacks committed by the migrants, you can feel the very structure of the EU groaning like a submarine that’s dived too deep and is about to implode.

The attack on basic European culture and human needs imposed by the EU has now reached breaking point. The everyday perception by the EU’s subjects is of someone breaking into your home, lolling about on your settee all day and demanding you supply board, food and money to them while at the same time you daren’t leave them alone with your womenfolk or children. All the while, you’re being told by some officious mouthpiece speaking for the ruling elite that there’s nothing you’re allowed to do about that situation.

Can someone, in the name of God, explain to me how that’s going to have a happy ending?

The UK establishment are desperately trying to get parliamentary approval of a deal that in draft form apparently runs to 585 pages, which in its bedevilled detail totally reverses the effect of the Brexit referendum. I feel that’ll prove to be the end of Theresa May’s disappointingly mediocre career. She was only being kept afloat by the Northern Ireland political Apache tribes, and since somewhere in the 585 pages is a nebulously worded agreement to detach them from the UK, it’s a declaration of war as far as they’re concerned, and quite rightly so.

She’s only in power because she managed to swing a very expensive coalition deal with them in the aftermath of her catastrophically managed election campaign, and now she seriously expects them to take one up the butt for the greater good of Europe. After twenty years of bloody sectarian warfare to prevent their colony being cut adrift by a fatigued mainland UK?

Never going to happen Theresa, and anyway, the mandarins of the conservative party decided after the disaster of the last election you masterminded, you had to get the boot before the next one, even if running against an unelectable cluster fuck like Jeremy Corbyn for the second time is all the excuse they needed and you supplied it all by yourself. Trying to push a pseudo Brexit by saying that’s the only exit deal on the table or you take the risk of letting Corbyn in at the next election, simply isn’t selling to anyone.

Exit actually means exiting the EU, irrespective of whether there’s a deal acceptable to them in place or not. A lot of people are so angry because of the Brexit sellout, they’re quite content to vote for Corbyn, let him run the country into the ground for four years, and then perhaps after an ice-cold shower like that, the political elite will listen to the results of referendums. How on Earth can anyone so incompetent or what’s more likely, so duplicitous, rise to be come PM of Britain with so few political smarts?

The political elite and rich vested interests have been running one delaying tactic after another for two years to deny the people the full-blooded Brexit they voted for in the referendum. The PM, Theresa May, is now commonly referred to as the traitor May, because the supposed Brexit “deal” she brought back from Brussels was a complete betrayal of the United Kingdom. What’s for sure is that her career in politics is over and her name tarnished forever, and she certainly will have company in that political wilderness.

Italy has already elected a new administration which is right-wing and very much anti-EU, anti-Euro, anti-migrant and refusing to modify its budget despite the usual threats from Brussels. At this stage, they’re gaining absolutely nothing from their EU membership except a recurrent permafrost of austerity regimes. Things are so bad, they’ve got nothing to lose by exiting the EU.

France as we’ve seen over the last five weeks, is on the verge of revolution not only against the nouveau Marie-Antoinette aspects of Emanuel Macron’s autocratic administration, but also his apparent willingness to prostrate France before both Merkel and her EU superstate. So far, the line has been held by the brutal application of violence by government forces and the usage of armoured vehicles ominously bearing the flag of the EU. Hitherto the mass demonstrations have been aimed at doing a rerun of the storming of the Bastille but in this case the Élysée Palace, but without much success, if you exclude forcing Macron into hiding for the last five weekends.

The protesters are average blue and white-collar workers rather than the usual ragbag of extremist hooligans out for a weekend of rioting and opportunistic looting. The moment, and it’s coming, that they declare a general strike paralysing France, Macron is finished and a new government will be formed via a coalition in which Marine le Pen will be playing a significant part.

In an apparent response to Trump demanding the nations belonging to NATO pay their dues, Macron, a big fan of the EU, also seemed to think it provided an excellent excuse to do what they’d always denied they wanted to do – set up an EU army. As usual, the globalists are really pushing the idea, but would it be Brussels in its customary fashion deciding, without consultation with or the permission of member states, who to declare war on?

More worryingly, when you look at potential enemies, the only one in any territorial striking distance of the EU is Russia, which even in its much slimmed down state, would run an EU army through the meat grinder by mid-afternoon, even allowing for a leisurely lunch break in Poland of pirozhki washed down with a few glasses of freshly liberated slivovitz. So, if not Russia, who would it be used on?

A much more likely use for such an army would be to put down anti-EU uprisings in member states. Certainly, that’s the big fear of such a monstrosity in the formerly Eastern European states now inside the EU, and recent events in Paris have graphically reinforced that concern. They know within living memory what it’s like to be occupied by a foreign army. The track record of unelected EU bureaucrats forcing deeply unpopular policies on the smaller nations using nothing more than threats of financial penalties has stopped working at points east, where you might see them disengage with the EU completely. Longer term, and I’m talking a decade or more, they might even conceivably move back towards the Russian block, if it can evolve into some sort of true democracy by then.

The creation of an EU army also gets you into some pretty imponderable scenarios very quickly. If the EU declares war on someone, will NATO necessarily get involved? If for instance it’s used to put down an uprising in a member state, what are the odds of NATO or the USA judging it to be an act of aggression on the EU’s part and side with the member state being invaded? What if the active deployment of an EU army internally provokes a civil war between member states?

The big question about an EU army that’s giving military strategists some nightmare scenarios to lose sleep over is simple. Leaving aside all the niceties, it’s actually Germany which runs the EU, with ever so discreetly France like a poodle doing as it’s told by them. But the only nuclear bomb equipped country within the EU is France. Is France prepared to surrender control of that military asset to an EU army? To what a lot of people might consider to be German control? Whatever happened to the Gaullist doctrine of we’ll never rely on an ally for our security again?

And what would Gospodin Putin make of a nuclear-armed EU army on his western border, conceivably with Germany’s finger on the launch buttons? This will never happen goes the old refrain, but echoes of Victoria saying cousin Willie will never attack us, Germany will never make war again after the defeat of the Great War and other such gems of popular wisdom, have often proved to be nothing more than wishful thinking.

It just hasn’t been thought through, most especially Russia’s reaction to an EU army camped on its periphery. When you wargame all the scenarios of who does what to whom on Russia’s western border, you get into nightmare country very quickly, because there are simply too many theoretical cases most of which could quickly spiral out of anyone’s control. For example, Russia invades a Baltic state for some reason, does the EU army go to war against Russia? What’s NATO’s role in such a scenario? Given the likely possibility of an EU army not doing well against the Red Army, can they suck NATO into the conflict? America? If the EU is facing certain defeat in a conventional war, do they go tactical nuclear or big casino nuclear?

The more you think about the permutations of scenarios involving an EU army, NATO, America and Russia, the worse it gets. Don’t kid yourself contingency plans for scenarios exactly like that are not being considered. As Gen. Mattis the US secretary of Defense said, “Be polite, be professional with everyone you meet, and then have a plan to kill them”.

This atmosphere of EU threats by unelected faceless bureaucrats is having a backlash in many of its vassal states and causing the overthrow of establishment parties by unashamedly nationalist and in some case far right parties, the effects of which have still to play through, but they’re on their way. The EU elections scheduled for May 2019 will change its political makeup considerably, with in most realistic estimates what’s called the “far” right by the EU propaganda machine making considerable gains.

What’s actually happening is that member states are resisting the globalists throwing them into some huge melting pot together with their nations, identities, cultures, religions and even their military being subsumed into some bastard morass, the final shape of which nobody has the faintest idea. Whatever economic benefit the smaller member states formerly got out of membership, now comes with too big a price tag in terms of loss of sovereignty and impoverished EU servitude, especially for the southern states such as Greece and Spain. The latter have just elected the right-wing anti-migration Vox party, forcing a coalition administration in Andalusia which had been solid socialist for decades.

A common thread with this tectonic change in political sentiment across Europe caused by the growth of populist or nationalist parties, is that it’s mainly at the expense of traditionalist socialist or centre parties who’re seemingly frozen into inaction by a straight jacket of ossified ideological baggage and being left behind in the current wave of revived nationalist politics.

That pattern of populist or nationalist parties winning a significant share of the vote is happening right across Europe. Already, Angela Merkel has been forced off her throne to relinquish her leadership of the CDU party in Germany, because her type of authoritarian politics was making the party unelectable, especially in the south where there are some real fears that unless the problem of the migrant invasion isn’t addressed realistically, states like Bavaria might actually secede from the federal republic. That’s not as fantastic a possibility as it might seem at face value, because Germany, like Italy, has only been a unified country for less than two centuries. They are relatively young countries and the bonds of national unity are still quite pliable.

If the globalists think they’re fighting against far right political sentiments at the moment, they ain’t seen nothing yet. They way they’re going, they’re actually creating a real extreme right all across Europe, with consequences nobody can see.

China.

The fourth and final block is China. There are a number huge misconceptions in occidental heads about China. It’s not a poor country, on the contrary, it’s a rich country that’s building two coal-fired power stations a week to support an economy that until only recently, was showing a 10% year on year growth rate. Given an estimated population of 1.4 billion people, it’s therefore also a massive consumer market. They have the usual creeping territorial ambitions in the South China Sea, but dealing with Trump seems to have made them back pedal on that particular front.

The real problem they’re always struggling with was expressed rather succinctly by a friend who’s actually lived in China for more than a decade – the rulers of China know they’re only two steps away from revolution. What this means is running the country in the non-democratic authoritarian style of the old Soviet communism, while at the same time producing wealth by giving what is actually free-market capitalism control of the production of consumer goods, is trying to have their cake and eat it. It’s a very delicate balance, and one miscalculation of even minor Macronian proportions, could easily throw the whole country into chaos.

If they press down too hard by ruling with the iron fist, they risk damaging the expanding economy. With a population that size, and a large enough number of people becoming unemployed and therefore dissatisfied, it significantly increases the risk of some sort of rebellion, if not a full-blown revolution. If they back off the iron fist too far and let consumerism rip, they risk an increasingly prosperous population demanding reform and real freedoms.

They do go to extremes, with the active cooperation of technocratic quislings like Google and its project Dragonfly to blacklist certain sites, in order to control the input from abroad their citizens see, because they rightly suspect it might plant a lot of seeds of unrest. For instance, they’ve had for over a decade what’s called The Great Firewall of China. Its job is to block access to what is deemed politically unacceptable websites and is manned by what’s wittily nicknamed The 50c Army, since for every site they block, they get 50c. I kid you not.

They have to export the products they produce and were having great success with that until Trump came along. The now defunct NAFTA trade agreement was being used to bypass import tariffs on Chinese goods by using Chinese manufactured parts in goods coming into America from Canada and Mexico, while at the same time China was protecting its domestic industries by imposing huge import tariffs on foreign-made goods. Trump and China have had some bullshit free talks about the problem, and I think the usual Trump kind of deal is well on the way, with everybody walking away from the negotiating table with something, but one thing is for certain – the days of China making savage profits at the expense of damaging American industrial infrastructure are history.

It’ll not be a hard deal to figure out – China drops or reduces import tariffs and hidden barriers to American goods and in return, Trump will impose reasonable tariffs on Chinese goods exported directly into America. Everybody gets something. Allowing China direct access to American markets will offset the loss of income from the scrapped NAFTA as well as the cut Canadian and Mexican manufacturers had to be paid for giving them indirect access to those markets. American exports will now have freer access to a huge and growing consumer market. Everybody is a winner, especially China, who can’t risk a serious recession caused by Trump restricting their access to the American market.

What’s obvious though, is the Chinese government know they can not only do business with Trump, but they can also usefully work together to control the rogue and unpredictable behaviour of some states in their region, such as North Korea. China were already less than comfortable with having an unpredictable but nuclear armed dictator like Kim Jong-un on their southern border, but when he started threatening Guam, a US territory, it delivered itself into the mercy of both China and the USA, who finding a common enemy made the obvious deal of working together to defuse the North Korea situation.

In less than six months, China and Trump between them pulled North Korea’s nuclear fangs by a combination of China stopping imports of North Korean coal (the only thing it exports) and Trump leaving the Koreans in no doubt what would happen if they nuked Japan or Guam. Historically, the Chinese are noted for two things; being incorrigible gamblers and first-class businessmen. Underneath that veneer of Communism, neither of those two traits have changed much, especially the latter. They know they can do business with Trump.

Other hotspots.

Around the world, there are various potential flash points from smaller nuclear armed countries. Pakistan and India have both had nukes for some time but have managed so far not to use them on each other despite the occasional war, though there is increasing concern about Pakistan exporting nuclear technology to places like North Korea, but the big fear is that some rogue element in the government will sell a nuke to an Islamic terrorist organisation. As a contact in the security consultancy business expressed it – the first time they get their hands on a nuke, we’re going to lose a city. What needs to be done to terminate such a situation will be done, and without a second’s hesitation.

In the Arabic part of the world, the real mad dog is Iran, whose hatred of Israel is pathological. The latest rumour is they’ve developed extremely long-range rockets capable of hitting America, but that’s improbable at this time. The fear is that they’ll attack Israel with the nuclear weapons they’re frantically developing, despite the billions of dollars in cash bribes paid to them to stop by the weakling Obama. They simply ploughed the money into their nuclear research program. The reaction by the nuked party would be so quick, the superpowers wouldn’t have any time to get between them.

We’d be back into the Cuba crisis situation, but this time without a reasonable chance of deescalating it. Iran nukes Tel Aviv, Israel would immediately retaliate against Tehran and every nuclear facility they even faintly suspect they’ve located in Iran. The reaction in the Arab world to Iran getting plastered by Israeli nukes would be loud condemnation but nothing more than that, because they’re all just as concerned as Israel with an unstable Iran armed with nuclear weapons, especially a Sunni Saudi Arabia. Shias and Sunnis hate each other more than they hate Jews.

The same would apply if for instance, Pakistan nukes Delhi, the Indians would take out Islamabad and any Pakistani town they think worth a Uranium 235 visit.

The two superpowers would come up with a lot of calm down words in both scenarios, but the reality is that as long as it’s kept off continental USA and the Rodina, as the motherland is still called by the military in Russia, they’ll let them do the megadeath to each other until through sheer exhaustion, they come to their senses. What other rational choice would there be?

Anyway, I’ll close it off there since, like Topsy, it keeps on growing. There’s more than enough material to kick off your own speculations, which I’d be interested to hear. It’ll be amusing to compare how things actually pan out by the end of next year, against this fanciful and speculative take on the direction the world’s going in. Hopefully, we’ll all still be here.

©Pointman

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Comments
41 Responses to “Some geopolitical thoughts on what to watch for in 2019.”
  1. Pointman says:

    Everyone out there, have a warm and loving Christmas in the company of friends, spouses, partners, those you’ve taken responsibility for irrespective of the biology, and just the people you love. Be kind and loving, because nothing much else will outlast you.

    Thank you for visiting and reading my sometimes silly stuff and occasionally taking the time to put down your thoughts in response. They are always appreciated.

    Again, thank you all and have a fine peaceful break surrounded the people you love.

    Now, let’s crack on with Christmas!

    Liked by 2 people

    • Blackswan says:

      Happy Christmas to you and your family Pointy … stay warm, and safe travels to you and yours.

      And many thanks for the work you do … for your generous invitation to all of us to visit here each week to share your thoughts and ideas and stories, and for the fun pics and gifs and video offerings you find for us. Always something different, always interesting, and always appreciated.

      Thank you.

      Liked by 2 people

  2. A great piece of analysis. You don’t mention China’s debt – on and off balance sheet. I would have thought this issue adds significantly to US – China trade issues, as well as to the broader geo-political situation. WDYR?

    Liked by 1 person

    • Pointman says:

      Hi Stephen,

      The finance angle did cross my mind, but there’s probably another 8,000 words in that article alone. Getting away from the strict accountancy meaning of “off balance sheet”, the level of high-level corruption in China’s debts and investments abroad would necessitate a lot of guesswork!

      Pointy

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Graeme No.3 says:

    A Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you, Pointman, and your loved ones.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Annie says:

    That’s a great article Pointman.
    Wishing you and yours a very Happy and Merry Christmas.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. BOB S. says:

    Brilliant article !!

    All the very best wishes to you & your family for Christmas & the New year

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Blackswan says:

    Pointman,

    Thanks for such a meaty post for us to chew on over the holiday season. First thing that comes to mind is the EU, having just seen an interesting documentary on the subject.

    If Life teaches us anything it’s that if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and smells like a duck … it sure as hell ain’t a pigeon!

    The particular duck that got my attention was Walter Hallstein who graduated as Germany’s youngest law professor in 1930 specialising in commercial and company law, who later began formulating his economic and industrial vision for a post-war Federated Europe, obviously after all had been subjugated by his Fuhrer and Europe’s treasures looted to pay for it.

    Young Walter wasn’t the least fazed by the destruction of his country or a term as a POW, and on his return to the beloved Fatherland plunged right into politics and the bureaucracy where he knew REAL power would be found. The war had taught him a great deal; namely that there is more than one way to skin a cat, and militaristic confrontation wasn’t one of them … at least, not at first.

    Why incur the expense and risk of annexing and conquering your neighbours only to end up with the whole world outside the tent pissing in on you, when you can invite them all into the tent and have them pissing all over each other?

    Best of all, instead of plundering a conquest’s riches, they could actually be persuaded to pay for their own downfall willingly … and then some. Yep, definitely a ‘master race’ move.

    Slowly, slowly catchee monkey being the more prudent option to get what you want.

    Much as his links to Nazism have been downplayed and he avoided consequences at Nuremberg, it remains a fact that the progressive development of the EU almost exactly mirrors his earlier vision for a German industrial powerhouse victory, one currency, one bureaucracy … and to start the ball rolling he became the first President of the European Commission of the EEC, a mere 13 years after so much of Europe had been reduced to rubble.

    Today, his successors have simply continued what he planned for Hitler almost ninety years ago … (and forget the Texan lawyer Godwin). A duck is a duck and remains a duck.

    What a bitter irony; that Adolph Hitler, the shellshocked private from the trenches of the Great War should go down in history as the most murderous failure the world has ever known, whereas the young lawyer Walter Hallstein would live to see his vision succeed beyond his wildest dreams … yet few the of the millions of people who now live under his unelected, federated and bureaucratic regime have ever heard of him.

    For all his brilliance, Walter didn’t consider two vital factors. Firstly, the dimwitted impatience of an Angela Merkel whose rash rush for demographic change would be the catalyst for open revolt … and secondly, the People themselves.

    While it’s possible to pander to the failings of human nature to make debt slaves and profitable consumer units out of them, you can’t simply rob them of their pride and their heritage by diktat; you can’t dissolve borders and nation states by dismissing tribal ancestors who fought and died to bequeath freedom to their descendants.

    Today it’s those very descendants who are donning yellow vests, are waking from their indoctrinated slumbers, remembering what their liberty cost their forebears, and taking the fight to those who would subjugate them once again.

    Hopefully their success will echo around the world and the One World Government UN will meet the same fate as the EU, packed up and run out of town … preferably with tar and feathers.

    Duck feathers.

    Liked by 2 people

  7. The Old Guy up the Road says:

    A Happy Christmas and a healthy and fruitful 2019 to you and yours Pointy.

    Another insightful roundup of the geopolitical landscape as always.

    Since you wrote this, we have had the departure of Gen.Mattis which is not IMHO a positive development and is certainly not well aligned with your thoughts.

    Have a great holiday.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Pointman says:

      Hi OG,

      The resignation of Gen. Mattis is not as major an incident as it’s being blown up into by fake news. To take a quote from Wiki –

      “As head of Central Command, Mattis oversaw the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and was responsible for a region that includes Syria, Iran, and Yemen. According to Leon Panetta, the Obama administration did not place much trust in Mattis because he was perceived as too eager for a military confrontation with Iran.

      President Obama fired Mattis as head of Central Command, but never called him to inform him. Mattis was traveling and in a meeting when an aide passed Mattis a note informing him of his dismissal. While Mattis had discussed eventually leaving with the Secretary of Defense no date for a change had been given.

      Mattis retired from the Marine Corps in 2013”

      His essential problem is in “too eager for a military confrontation” and Trump’s decision to wind down the Iraq and Afghanistan entanglements was at loggerheads with that. That over aggressive streak is what got him fired by Obama and he beat Trump to the punch by resigning. Trump’s aim was to kill ISIS, a military objective that by any reasonable assessment has been achieved.

      It’s great having a pitbull at your command as Secretary of Defense, but if you have doubts about how controllable he is or he won’t do as he’s told by his Commander in Chief (Trump BTW), then problems arise. Some generals get a bit too used to giving orders and not taking them. Mattis was appointed by Trump and should have been aware of his oft stated intention to win the various wars he inherited from Obama and Clinton, but he’d no interest in leaving American troops there for years after to act as policemen.

      All you’re doing then is providing GIs as walking targets to various guerrilla forces for years to come, and there’s no end to that.

      An aggressive general’s first instinct is to attack, but that imperative has always to be tempered by the will of an elected government. Just as Mattis suicided for a second time by being overaggressive, Gen. MacArthur got fired by Truman because having won the Korea war, he was determined to keep going northwards into China, ignoring all the Gordian Knot of consequences that would have ensued. He also started briefing against and giving political speeches while he was still in post against his Commander in Chief, thinking he was too big to just get fired. I hope Mattis doesn’t follow that sad end of career example.

      These people are appointed and serve at “the President’s pleasure”. Mattis must have been aware of Trump’s strategy when he accepted the appointment, and if he wasn’t, he proved to be the wrong man for the job.

      Pointman

      Liked by 2 people

  8. Margaret Smith says:

    As usual, a great essay. We are all watching the great and the good getting it all wrong and messing up everyone’s life. I am old and will not live to see the outcome but maybe I’ll see the beginning of the end.
    Religious fanatics are the worst as they think they have a god on their side. Altogether the world is thoroughly buggered and I feel sorry for the younger generations – what sort of world are we leaving them?
    My sister and I often think that we are the luckiest generation: living in an established democratic (more or less) society, good education, good medical treatment, cheap electricity, cheap flights and holidays abroad.
    Can something like this be restored?

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to Pointman and everyone else who posts here. Looking forward to next year as I sit back and enjoy the show!

    Liked by 2 people

    • Pointman says:

      Hi Margaret,

      I must confess I occasionally feel the same, but two sayings which have always ran through my head at such times tend to cheer me up. “If it can’t last, it won’t” by unknown. The other one is “You can evade reality – but you cannot evade the consequences of evading reality” – Ayn Rand.

      The usually harsh results tend to provide a much needed and corrective reality check.

      Pointy

      Liked by 1 person

      • Margaret Smith says:

        Indeed, communist-run countries have their own destruction built in. But…in Russia they lasted 70 years and democracy is still distant. Maintaining their east european conquests led to the inevitable collapse.
        Russia maintains the collapsing Cuba and China maintains N Korea. Already collapsing Venezuela is being propped up by Putin and R Castro, Chavez having stolen billions of the people’s money. China is desperate not to follow the Soviet Union and introduced limited capitalism with complete political control – how long can this go on? All dictators fear the people, becoming ever more paranoid and our would-be dictators should remember that!
        To me the fear is if they can destroy democracy everywhere at the same time and remove the very word from the dictionary, will it take 2000 years to build it again?
        Old Chinese Curse: “May you live interesting times.”

        Nevertheless I am looking forward to Christmas with the family and forgetting the troubles in the wider world.
        Happy and peaceful Christmas Pointy to you and to your family.

        Liked by 2 people

    • Bushkid says:

      Margaret, I’m also of that generation that has lived through what I think will be remembered as something of a golden age.

      Born in the later 1950s to rural but educated professional parents, educated initially in a one-teacher bush school with a sensible curriculum that actually planted a decent foundation, raised in a household that valued good books and music, essentially having to take care of myself from mid-teenage years, having a wide experience in a variety of employments, having seen the amazing technological changes that have occurred throughout my life – it’s disappointing to see our so-called leaders and the indoctrinated youth so willing to trash everything we now have as a society for the sake of…. well I don’t think even they know for the sake of what.

      And, yes, I’m grateful that I’m of an age that I don’t fear death, having lived a great life in a great country in a great time. My only sadness is that it may all be lost for current and future youth. They really have no idea what they will be missing.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Peter Shaw says:

      I know a Margaret Smith in New Zealand. A good family friend from my parent’s generation.
      She has (or had) a sister in the UK. Just wondering if there’s any tie up here. Unlikely, but who knows!

      Like

      • Margaret Smith says:

        Peter
        No connection, I’m afraid. There must be 100s of Margaret Smiths. I have connections to Smiths in US and Canada but not in New Zealand or Australia (that I know of).
        I watch developments there with dismay and read Jo Nova’s blog to update myself.

        I am in my 70s when one can’t even say with any certainty one will be here this time next year.

        Happy New Year.

        Like

      • Margaret Smith says:

        Peter, I have looked into this and have discovered there is a connection between my family and New Zealand. My mother knew of a cousin there but lost contact – she had been sending Christmas cards. My mother is also Margaret but not originally Smith and never in New Zealand. I doubt there is a connection because ‘Smith’ came from her marriage, though, of course, a connection with my father’s family is possible. But there are so many Smiths….

        Just shows one can’t be too sure of anything!

        Like

  9. babygrandparents says:

    Wow. Have a very good and relaxing Christmas. Thank you for your thoughtful and educational pieces. I look forward to your writing each week. Take care and enjoy your family.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Russ Wood says:

    Thanks, Pointy, for a great essay. On the EU control and the possibility of internecine war, I read an interesting fiction book – ‘Cauldron’, by Larry Bond, published 1993. It sets out the conditions and results of an out-of-control EU, led by France and Germany, versus almost everybody else. Since Larry Bond worked with Tom Clancy on a couple of his books, as a ‘tech war’ novel it’s pretty good.
    Meanwhile, may I wish a Happy Christmas to you and your family!

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Jim Barker says:

    Merry Christmas to all here. Thanks for the good read.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. OneWorldGovernment says:

    A joyous and Happy Christmas to you and yours Pointman, and the same to all dwellers and contributors to your blog.

    Thank you for insights and stories through another interesting year.

    Another area that I think will be interesting to watch in this coming year is North and South America generally.

    I would ‘love’ to see Trump stack the Southern USA border with training camps spread across it.

    With change of Governments in both Mexico and Brazil Trump seems to have an opportunity to effect some meaningful partnerships down South.

    The situation with Venezuela and with both China, Russia and Middle East bad actors holding sway must be of some concern.

    Let alone the ongoing Cuba situation.

    All the best to everyone for 2019.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. beththeserf says:

    So enjoy yr posts Pointman and Happy Xmas to you and yours. Re this global overview, so much depends on a strong and non-gullible USA and for now that means Trump, aware of the climate scam and the globalism ethos of those EU and UN Trilaterals that include Soros.. Now if only Britain can manage a non punishing Brexit…

    Liked by 1 person

  14. Hereward the Woke says:

    Great post! Concerning the EU, I don’t see either how they can survive. We call these people “elites” but often forget how stupid they are. The EU “leadership” knows only one command: press on regardless. Look for them to get even more obnoxious and arrogant and by doing so, seal their own doom. My only disagreement is about the EU Army. The idea that the limp-wristed nations of Europe will finance an EU army when they won’t even finance NATO is a non-starter. Of course they would probably be happy to fund some kind of EU-wide boot squad to deal with things like the Gilets Jaunes, but even that would turn people even more against them. For the EU army, can anyone imagine Putin quaking in his boots and stammering, “Oh, no, here come the Dutch….and Isn’t that the….the…the Swedish behind them?!” We are in a global existential battle: ordinary deplorables and nationalists v the evil arrogant globalists. Let’s hope 2019 sees more victories for the side of good.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. Graeme No.3 says:

    After their last effort in 1708/9 I don’t think that the Swedes would be too keen on invading Russia.
    See Charles the 12th and the Battle of Poltava. A few hundred left out of an army of 40,000 plus further losses after the defeat of the reinforcements.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. philjourdan says:

    The acronym for the EU – USE has many potential tongue-in-cheek uses (that is not one of them). Such as a smaller EU without Britain is USE-Less. Or USE with unelected bureaucrats is just them USE-ing you. Or you being USEd by them.

    I love that acronym!

    And I especially appreciate your insight into the power players. China is on the verge right now. But beyond what you wrote, there is the possibility of a mega-Venezuela if they clamp down too hard, or disintegration if they ease up without control. They are the egg, decorated like a Faberge that has rotted on the inside. Very pretty to look at, but when it breaks, it will stink up the whole joint!

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Bushkid says:

    Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and all you hold dear, Pointy. Thank you for yet another year of though-provoking, pithy posts, always enjoyable.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. Peter Shaw says:

    Best wishes to all who frequent this site.
    Thank you Pointy for a speculative but thoughtful look into the future that may be. I thoroughly enjoyed reading it.
    What ever, it’s going to be interesting.

    Like

  19. OneWorldGovernment says:

    Hopefully Trump will put training bases across the Southern Border, Northern Border and Alaska.

    They already cycle through other countries so it will be good to see.

    Africa is the other place I forgot to mention.

    Like

  20. Neville says:

    Thanks again, Pointy, for your thoughtful and usually-incisive analyses! This article is a VERY good read.

    All the best to you and yours for this Xmas (yeah, just gone!), and a most happy and prosperous New Year!

    Like

  21. Pointman says:

    A happy, prosperous and healthy 2019 to you and all your loved ones.

    Pointy

    Like

  22. OneWorldGovernment says:

    Happy New Year to Pointman and ALL of us.

    Pointman

    Some 20 years ago I used to ‘knock about’ with a loose collection of folk in Canberra that had an interest in computer technology and its future directions.

    One of the earliest conclusions we inferred was who was going to control the ‘Data Estate’ and whomever controlled it would find it more profitable than Real Estate.

    I think this has been born out by the immense profusion of ‘cloud computing’ let alone the likes of Alphabet!, Google,Youtube, Amazon and Facebook to ‘bore’ into everyday internet users online experience and the ability of these organizations to shape, limit promote and deny those they deem unacceptable.

    The other area that we concluded was contentious was money transfers and the control thereof and this has been born out by the likes of Mastercard/Visa, Paypal and Patreon limiting access to their services for folk they deem ‘beyond the pale’.

    I am cynical of the supposed benefits of blockchain technology although it may have some applicable benefits in some areas but as to Bitcoin and derivatives, are you kidding me!

    So!

    I think the rogue ‘I’m a bloody individual’ types need to concentrate on how we can continue to be nationalists who converse with other nationalists from country to country AND we need to work out a methodology ro pay each other.

    Even GoFundMe has been taken over.

    Cheers

    Like

  23. OneWorldGovernment says:

    And a suggestion for an ongoing topic for 2019 – SLAVERY

    In all its forms and perpetrators.

    Like

  24. Patrick healy says:

    Happy New year to you Mr Pointman and all your clever posters.
    Thank you for your wit and diligence.
    One area you only mentioned in passing was the ‘religion of peace’ . It will no doubt spread its evil tentacles further with the connivance of socialist politicians and misguided religious leaders.
    On a similar vein, the hydra headed global warming fraud will continue to grow more heads.

    Btw that great democratic institution the European Union has today decreed that the use of the word ‘man’ is henceforth prohibited.
    Just as well ‘ they’ changed the scam from Mann made global warming to climate change.
    As there are many references to ‘man’ in our Catholic liturgy I am sure our present Pontiff will soon be setting us straight on the correct nomenclature.

    Like

  25. Doonhamer says:

    Just coming up to the bells, so Pointman, your family and all your intelligent posters – have a Guid New Year and lang may yer lum reek.
    Slainte.
    And thanks for all your posts. I always admired the obvious background knowledge and polish and your explanation of your process shows why it is so.

    Like

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