The reaction to the sledgehammer by West block Europe.

First of all, let’s define terms. West block Europe is NATO and the EU combined since the latter is now totally perceived by the East block as nothing more than the hostile political arm of NATO being used to wage the economic sanctions war on Russia. The UK is a member of NATO but has withdrawn from the EU but next behind America, it’s the most aggressive party in the proxy war against Russia. Boris Johnson has just lost two by-elections, one of which was expected but the other one wasn’t. What was a Conservative Party majority of about 25K in it was turned into a 20K win by the third marginal party in the UK, so he’s going to get dumped at the first practicable opportunity by his own party.

The UK is starting to look like a rerun of the terrible economic and industrial strife of the 1970s – soaring cost of living, inflation running into two figures and strikes for wage increases are breaking out all over the place. The MKII of the “winter of discontent” has arrived early and all Boris seems to be fixated on is some country most Britons couldn’t give a flying fuck about. The situation is not being helped by him rambling on about the EU becoming a new and bigger sprawling Roman empire and how the war could only have started because of Putin’s toxic masculinity. First off, Britons voted by the largest turn out ever to get out of the EU and second, some bloody foreigner’s toxic masculinity is well down their list of immediate concerns.

Whoever replaces Boris must make it an immediate priority to get rid of the current foreign secretary Liz Truss who is totally incompetent and well up for a direct war with Russia. Or seemingly anybody, even China as well. She’s now saying Britain should send weapons to help Taiwan amid fears of an invasion by China. She’s obviously never heard Lincoln’s advice about one war at a time please. Nobody trusts her judgement over anything.

Western Europe has been demilitarised. They’ve given the vast majority of their weapon stockpiles to the Ukraine which have been promptly destroyed or captured by Russian forces. There’s no weapons left. The only ones not in Russian hands are now for sale on the dark net. If you fancy a Stinger missile for your birthday, it’ll only cost you about $30,000 and that’s after it’s been fully reconditioned so it actually works again. Taking a commercial flight is about to become a very dangerous idea. A javelin will cost you a bit less, simply because knocking a big commercial jet out of the air with a stinger and killing a few hundred people has a much bigger propaganda impact than killing one tank or APC. In evidence to the UK’s defense committee, some expert in tweeds said It’ll take the West block years to get their stockpiles up to pre-war levels, and we all know what department gets the first and biggest budget cuts in a recession.

Not everybody has taken it on board yet, but it isn’t Red Army troops taking apart the Ukraine on the ground but militia forces of the two Donbass republics with the Red Army just supplying the massive artillery scourging, air superiority and total logistic support. The way things stand at the moment in terms of ammunition and equipment stockpiles, western Europe is defenseless. If, God forbid, WWIII breaks out, the Red Army could slice through it like a hot knife through butter.

Macron, a delusion Napoleon knockoff who’s actually out of power, smugly assures everyone in the EU that it’s winning on all fronts against the Russians – economic sanctions, military aid to Ukraine, undermining Russia’s financial system. The reverse is actually true but it’s all part of the denial that seems to have gripped the West block by the throat. It’s Russia which is actually winning on all fronts and is actually thriving as the West block heads into penury.

It’s becoming laughable from the Russian side. Russian defense secretary said they were having a wonderful time destroying US M5777 howitzers before they’d managed to fire a single shot. Given the accuracy of Russian intelligence in the Ukraine, I’m inclined to believe him. After all, upwards of 50 Ukrainian generals, senior officers and general staff got together in a super secret location to plan the grand August offensive that would turn around the great military disaster (a fantasy BTW) and the Russians visited the exact location of the ultra secret meeting with a flotilla of cruise missiles that killed everything for miles around

Like so much of the EU leadership, Macron’s living in delusion world. The madness continues with giving candidate entry status to Moldiva and the Ukraine. The optics are a bloody disaster. Georgia, Albania and north Macedonia, much more deserving, were denied candidate status because they wouldn’t join in the hate Russia campaign, and for no other reason. Russian Foreign minister Sergi Lavrov compared the EU’s expansion to the Nazis establishing coalitions of countries to attack Russia. He’s perfectly right of course.

Hungry, under the consistently sensible leadership of Viktor Orban and who’s stayed well out of the whole sanctions disaster, has actually made the revolutionary suggestion that instead of going for yet another sanctions package (what’s left to sanction you might ask), it might be a good idea to sit down with the Russians and hold talks. It’s been roundly condemned by the war crazed EU leadership in Brussels but everyone knows he’s speaking for a lot of smaller countries that dare not oppose West block.

If it is actually pushed to a shooting war with Russia by America, there’s a big question about how many of them will immediately declare themselves out of NATO and neutral. Somehow, getting their country destroyed and their people slaughtered for Joe Biden has no appeal to a lot of Europeans. You see, they signed up to NATO years ago in the Cold War as a defensive coalition, not to be used as offensive cannon fodder for an American manufactured war against Russia.

Mass regime change is happening or on the way across Europe. Boris loses 2 seats and soon the party leadership, the ruling socialist vote in Spain has just collapsed, Italian main party looks to be heading for the rocky reef next year after its disastrous showing in the local elections, Little Napoleon Macron can’t find any other party who want to get involved with him in forming a party of “national unity”. Marine lePen has the most seats in the parliament so it looks likely she’ll put together a coalition with several of the tiddler parties. Robert Habek already introducing rationing in Germany and we’re still only in June! Ireland warns of fuel rationing to begin in the Autumn. Inflation officially hits %9.1 (wink) as of last week, a 40 year high. According to Boris, it’s a price worth paying. Is it? I doubt if Brits freezing their way through this coming winter in the darkness of a blackout will agree.

The Russians have simple stopped listening to them and their sanctions. They no longer take them seriously and as they’ve found new customers all over the world for the commodities they used to supply Europe with, the question is now being discussed if Russia won’t start indulging in a bit of economic warfare itself. Why not just ban exports of natural gas, oil, fertiliser and everything else they used to supply? There’s no downside for Russia and overnight complete economic destruction for West block Europe.

Germany and Italy are now furiously firing up coal plants. In the almost certain event of power rationing, it’s estimated 1/5 of companies in Germany will be facing closure. Greece already decided to do it months ago. By also sanctioning Russian coal, they’re now forced to burn lignite (brown) coal, highly polluting BTW, so you can kiss Germany’s green revolution goodbye for the next decade at least, if not forever. The Netherlands is lifting all restrictions on power produced by coal while also appealing to businesses to reduce the amount of power they use. How in God’s name are they supposed to remain competitive in a global business environment with a stricture like that hanging over them? Denmark is already owning up that come winter, they’re going to have a heating energy crisis. They’re going to have lots of company. The French government have already admitted there’s an energy crisis looming and urging the government to restart all the old coal plants.

Within the last week we’ve had both a NATO and G7 summit with not much sense coming out of either except to press on with the current strategy of economic suicide and spending Ukrainian lives. The ideas that came out of the meetings were laughable. Banning buying Russian gold will cost Putin an estimated $19bn a year, offset by $30-40 bn revenue per month from the sale of energy. I wonder what’ll happen to the price of gold when the world’s second largest bullion miner and a major source of supply is cut off from the Western market? Strangely enough, Russia is hoarding its gold rather than selling it, so this “sanction” seems as senseless as the others. When they do sell, it’s only to friendly East block countries like China and India.

Another spiffing idea was to declare a price cap on Russian oil. Initial spin, originating with the usual anonymous source was that they reported China would go along with it but within hours the Chinese vehemently denied any such undertaking as did India. How dare any third party group try to dictate the price of any freely traded commodity between two countries? The fiction of China and India selling out Russia for some cheap oil hasn’t worked. The unpleasant truth for G7 is that Russia is now so cash rich, it could live very comfortably for the next year without selling any oil to anyone, and all of that due to their sanctions forcing up the price of oil globally. As for OPEC members like Saudi Arabia, I can really see them going for a proposal which means they’ll earn less for their oil sales.

Instead of throwing two decades of creeping green useless energy overboard and simply admitting defeat in the sanctions war with Russia, they’d rather go backwards. You see, the hard reality is they know something they simply don’t want to admit to their electorates.

The Russians are not withholding all the energy and commodities they used to export to the EU, they’ve simply found new markets and avid buyers of everything they can produce and all in less than three months. They not only don’t trust the EU, they don’t need its money either. They can trust China and India to pay promptly and without stealing Russian money and assets.

Another thing that came out of the G7/NATO dance around the fantasy maypole was an undertaking to keep supporting the Ukraine indefinitely. The stupidity and hate behind that has all the fingerprints of that arch Russia hater Ursula von der Leyen. I can only think the single result of such a declaration will be the Special Military Operation isn’t going to end anytime soon – they now have to completely destroy an armed to the teeth Ukraine. There won’t be a Ukraine at the end of it. If the Russians get their way, Zelensky and co will be arrested and tried as war criminals. There will be no negotiated peace because Russia is fed up dealing with bad faith brokers. This war ends with unconditional surrender or absolute annihilation of the Ukraine.

Diplomatically, they’ve left Russia no other way out.

It gets better though. Last Saturday, Putin informed his close ally President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus that he has approved supplying him with long-range nuclear capable Iskander missiles. How’s that for a bit of role reversal? Instead of NATO via the EU creeping ever closer to the Russian Federation, he’s creeping Russian nuclear missiles westwards towards their borders. It’s not as if he doesn’t have any to spare – at the last published intelligence assessment, Russia has about 6,000 of the things. The immediacy of it makes me think that it might be a first response to Lithuania blockading off Kaliningrad but before long, I imagine he’ll be coming up with more punishments for Lithuania. In case your geography is a bit rusty, Lithuania is directly north of Belarus. They’re now for the first time going to have nukes stationed right on their border. It also means their neighbours Poland and Latvia have the same threat hanging over their borders for the first time.

I think it’d be a fair bet that supplies of any commodity Lithuania used to get from Russia are about to get turned off permanently, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Latvia and Estonia get the same treatment, just to underscore the point with the Baltic triumvirate that neither the EU or the US will do a damn thing to help them out once Russia decide to give them a damn good kicking. Lithuania has made the same freezing bed for all three of you, so enjoy it together.

Just to add a cherry on top of the G7/NATO meetings as diplomatic disasters, Russia and China are both to be taken off the partners list and added to the threatening children in the naughty corner. There’s nothing like pushing two of your nuclear armed enemies even closer together, is there?

Basically, they’ve got themselves into a mess with no way out except to plough on with the same failing strategy while their own economies are being destroyed, they’ve emptied their arsenals and the Russians are stomping all over the Ukrainian military. There’s no plan B, no contingency plans of any sort. It’s that bad. The whole mess is just going to be passed onto the new faces that will appear next year in regime changes across all of western Europe.

The US president said the outcome would be decided by how much damage each side is prepared to sustain in the Ukraine conflict. To cap it all, Biden is now saying things like he anticipates a ‘waiting game’ between Western Europe and Russia. Note, America isn’t being included in that game. Let me translate that diplomatic speak for you. Having ruined and thrown into recession all the economies of western Europe in four months flat, he’s washing his hands of the whole bloody mess and moving onto pastures new.

Yes, it’s another Afghan style bolt for the exit door by the Biden administration.

©Pointman

Related articles by Pointman:

The Sledgehammer.

Remind me again, which country’s economy was sanctions going to devastate?

The Ukraine war – the military realities.

All articles in the Sledgehammer series

All articles about the Ukraine situation

Click for a list of other articles.

Comments
14 Responses to “The reaction to the sledgehammer by West block Europe.”
  1. Marzouk says:

    Scary mess we have been put into. None in the West want to stop digging.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Richard Ilfeld says:

    At least the Biden administration is consistent: everything it touches turns into expensive chaos. People are noticing that none of our government agencies work any more. Baby food and understaffed FAA controllers are just the tip of the iceberg. In any of the myriad govt. choke points of complex systems of modern life, the Biden folks have inserted properly victim statused but wholly unqualified individuals. JAX Center is “fully staffed” it’s just that a third of the equity hires aren’t qualified to work aircraft. How many other artificially critical govt. positions in workflows are equally disabling? Do you think we can resupply our troops? Do you think out leadership wants to?
    Europe may swallow their pride, and turn to the US for energy help. What will be the outcome of the standard Biden approach: deliver a speech and do nothing, then blame the failure on someone else? NATO is a spent force; and in a Europe left alone I see no Churchill.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. another ian says:

    Hi Pointy

    FWIW

    “An army marches on its stomach – and its arsenals”

    With some of his personal experience

    https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2022/07/an-army-marches-on-its-stomach-and-its.html

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Graeme No.3 says:

    I see BASF are thinking of shutting down Ludwigshafen. (That’s the line of factories 8 km. long on the Rhine) About 4% of Germany’s gas demand.
    Worse will be the flow-on effect on suppliers and customers.
    Economic self inflicted depression for Germany.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Pointman says:

    Russia demands rubles for grain exports.

    “The Russian government has added grain, sunflower oil and extracted meal to the list of exports that must be paid for in rubles. A resolution giving effect to the decision was adopted on Friday and published on the official portal of legal information.

    It also provides for a one-year extension of duties to be paid in the national currency in respect of exported sunflower oil and sunflower meal until August 31, 2023.

    As part of the new payment mechanism, the base price for calculating the export duty on wheat will be 15,000 rubles (over $267) per ton.

    Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter and a major supplier of sunflower seeds. Russian Minister for Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev said this month that the country would export agricultural products to “friendly countries” only.

    According to the minister, Russia’s grain harvest could reach 130 million tons this year, which would be enough to cover both domestic needs and ensure export potential.”

    https://www.rt.com/business/558232-russia-switches-grain-exports-rubles/

    RT only accessible because of censorship unless you use TOR, in which case it’s easy.

    I imagine this is further punishment for Lithuania’s initiative to blockade Kaliningrad. If the Russians there have to go hungry, then all of West block Europe won’t get a single grain of Russian wheat.

    The key phrase in that declaration for Europe is “export agricultural products to “friendly countries” only.”

    Thanks for nothing Lithuania.

    Pointman

    Liked by 2 people

  6. Pointman says:

    “Baltic nation sees soaring electricity and gas tariffs

    Vilnius has pledged to compensate Lithuanian households

    Tariffs for gas and electricity in Lithuania are going to be significantly higher from July 1, the country’s government announced on Friday, promising to help the population with compensation.

    Gas prices for Lithuanian households have been increased by between 27.5% and 41.5%, depending on their consumption, according to the State Council for Energy Regulation.

    Meanwhile, prices for electricity have doubled, but the subsidies pledged by the government are expected to offset the rising costs, pushing up electricity bills by 40%.

    The minimum tariff for electricity is now €0.24 per megawatt-hour with households able to get compensation of €0.09 per megawatt-hour.

    The state subsidies are expected to help around 600,000 of the most vulnerable citizens. The Lithuanian government has allocated €570 million ($593 million) to offset electricity and gas prices this year, of which €365 million (€379.7 million) will go towards consumer debt.”

    https://www.rt.com/business/558242-lithuania-soaring-electricity-gas-prices/

    Only accessible by TOR.

    When it comes to Lithuania and its blockade of Kaliningrad, I can’t help but be reminded of a certain song, and General Winter is still 4 months away …

    Pointman

    Liked by 1 person

  7. philjourdan says:

    A reporter’s analysis. It mirrors this article.

    Like

  8. another ian says:

    Hi Pointy

    “EU Caves Putin Wins, Transportation of Russian Goods to Kaliningrad Through Lithuania Will Resume
    July 2, 2022 | sundance | 20 Comments”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/07/02/eu-caves-putin-wins-transportation-of-russian-goods-to-kaliningrad-through-lithuania-will-resume/

    Like

  9. another ian says:

    And

    “Massive Implications, Saudi Arabia in Discussion to Join BRICS Coalition – The Outcome Would be Global Energy and Economic Cleaving
    July 2, 2022 | sundance | 307 Comments”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/07/02/massive-implications-saudi-arabia-in-discussion-to-join-brics-coalition-the-outcome-would-be-global-energy-and-economic-cleaving/

    Like

  10. Pointman says:

    Sanctions War: Germans Told to Prepare for Gas Shortages, Hot Water Rationing Possible

    “The appeal came after Russia reduced gas flows to Germany, Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia earlier this month, as European Union countries scramble to refill storage facilities with the fuel used to generate electricity, power industry and heat homes in the winter.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/07/02/sanctions-war-germans-told-to-prepare-for-gas-shortages-hot-water-rationing-possible/

    Russia going for the throat. Not allowing “unfriendly” countries to fill their winter reserve tanks.

    Pointman

    Like

  11. another ian says:

    Watch this space

    “Biden Plan to Cap Russian Oil Prices Could Seriously Backfire, Which Means It’s Likely to Happen
    July 3, 2022 | Sundance | 1 Comment”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/07/03/biden-plan-to-cap-russian-oil-prices-could-seriously-backfire-which-means-its-likely-to-happen/

    Like

  12. Pointman says:

    ” Russia becomes India’s top fertilizer supplier
    Moscow offers agri-produce at lower prices than China, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Jordan. Russia has become India’s biggest supplier of phosphate fertilizers due to discounts amid Ukraine-related Western sanctions, The Indian Express reported on Thursday, citing industry sources.

    According to the report, over the past three months India imported 350,000 tons of diammonium phosphate, or DAP, a fertilizer that provides agricultural crops with phosphorus nutrition for the entire period of their growth.

    “Imports came at just the right time as planting began for the rain season, which will peak in July,” the publication states.

    Russian fertilizer producer PhosAgro has offered Indian companies a heavy discount on its products, while also covering bank commissions for payments transfer. As a result, the cost of Russian fertilizer for India amounted to $920-925 per ton, which is lower than the prices offered by other international suppliers, including China, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Jordan.
    Indian imports of Russian oil explode – media READ MORE: Indian imports of Russian oil explode – media

    According to the Express report, the price offered by Russia coincides with the price cap India recently put on fertilizer importers. It also notes that the situation may force other fertilizer suppliers to lower their prices if they want to retain their share in the Indian market.

    The only problem regarding Russian imports is making payments, which is a complicated process now that Russia is forced to operate under sanctions. However, sources say the industry has come up with “innovative methods” to solve the issue.

    “The risk in this case has had to be borne by the seller (PhosAgro), since banks weren’t willing to open letters of credit (to serve as a guarantee for payment) on the importers’ behalf.

    Payments were then made by telegraphic transfer to the seller’s account, upon the latter physically presenting the necessary documents (copy of invoice, certificate of origin, bill of lading, insurance policy, etc.) seven-to-ten days after the cargo had set sail,” the sources explained.”

    https://www.rt.com/business/558131-russia-india-fertilizer-supplies/

    Pointman

    Like

  13. another ian says:

    And so it goes

    “Facing Defeat in Lysychansk Ukraine Military Retreats, Russia Takes Full Control of Eastern Ukraine Region of Luhansk
    July 4, 2022 | Sundance | 123 Comments”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/07/04/facing-defeat-in-lysychansk-ukraine-military-retreats-russia-takes-full-control-of-eastern-ukraine-region-of-luhansk/#more-234808

    Like

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