Getting out of there while you’ve still got a shirt on your back.

Posted by Pointman on June 3, 2022 · 16 Comments 

A number of developments of late concerned with Russia’s “special military operation” have signalled a ground shift in the West’s whole approach to the thing. The first was various attempts by America to open some public channels of communication with the Russians. The Biden administration is massively concerned with PR and spin, but there’s no hiding the simple fact that they’re the ones trying to initiate a dialogue with the Russians who appear not to be that interested.

Given the neo-con liberal puppeteers who hate Russia and Putin and actually run the Biden administration, there can only be one reasonable conclusion to be drawn from that. The foreign adventure of provoking a proxy war with Russia appears to be yet another foreign policy disaster. They’re beginning to realise that and trying to head it off at the pass. Putin is in no mood to help them save face and will continue to progressively degrade any Ukrainian military capacity to hurt Russia until it’s mission complete.

It is a two pronged proxy war. The first is to destroy the Russian economy, second, arm the Ukrainians to the teeth to destroy the Russian invaders. By now it’s become obvious that both prongs have failed miserably but it’s the latter that most concerns the Americans who have the intel to see what’s about to happen in the Donbass in the coming weeks if not days.

The one thing that’s of no apparent concern to America is the backlash on western Europe of the failure of the economic war via sanctions. Why should it? It really doesn’t have a substantive effect on them other than driving up prices at the pump. I’m being ironic there by the way. Too many green obsessed extremists in the administration want to price gas out of Joe Public’s range, so they’ve got no problem with that outcome. The effects of that will take some time to work their way through the economic system but it’s safe to say they’ll arrive in a timely fashion before the November mid-terms.

The quality of the current crop of leaders in western Europe and most especially the EU is appalling, but even they have noticed a recent change in the wind with regard to America and the Ukrainian quagmire. American military starting low level talks with their Russian equivalents can only suggest they’ve begun to start work on an exit strategy. They’re just about bright enough to realise America could once again bolt for the exit door and leave them holding another full chamber pot of steaming piss like they did last year with the Afghanistan withdrawal shambles.

Coincidentally, they’re starting to think over what that awkward little cuss in each of their cabinets they’ve been ignoring has been saying to them over the last three months. Sanctions against Russia can’t work and never will. Our economy is tanking because of the backlash. Inflation is starting to rage out of control and by the end of the year we’ll be facing an enraged electorate which’ll vote us out of office at the first opportunity.

It’s time to start working on their own exit strategy right now.

That’s why the heads of both Germany and France and a few assorted less notables all rang Putin directly last week. Spot the herd panic, hey? I’ve read official summaries of the conversations by the Russian foreign ministry but they were the usual Russian blend of one or two hard replies they wanted to put out there and a lot of omissions of what else was discussed.

On the other side, if the herd of triumphalist sanctions setters came away with anything, they’d have crowed about it from the rafters. Basically, they’ve been silent. Given the current situation, I think I can make a pretty accurate guess of the way each conversation went. Putin has them by the bollocks and I suspect he just squeezed them and sent them away to think it over and come back with some realistic proposals after he laid out his own demands to them.

First of all, drop these silly sanctions, you’re only hurting your own economies, not mine. Second, stop sending armaments to kill my soldiers. The Ukraine is ours, get used to the idea. Third, you’ve all found devious ways to pay for natural gas in rubles and are afraid I might insist on doing the same for oil, wheat and all the other commodities we used to supply you with in vast quantities. I still might. Fourth, I’ve already found alternative markets for the commodities I used to supply you with. China and India are already buying everything we offer and look to be voracious new customers. Resuming the usual supplies to you isn’t anything we need to do and perhaps never will, though returning all the money you stole from us might count for something.

The fifth and I think the biggest demand was intimating that distancing themselves from American foreign policy towards Russia and the Ukraine confrontation was a prerequisite to him giving them a single damn thing. The higher up the ladder you go, the more direct the negotiations become, which is why they all sloped away from their conversations with Putin with their tails between their legs. The fact that Putin hasn’t taken his foot off the military pedal since those meetings indicates that.

He’s given them some time to think it over but as the Rolling Stones’ song goes, time is on my side. As seems always, General Winter is on Russia’s side and he’s approaching Europe. Sometimes we all have found ourselves in totally untenable situations and within that context, there’s no practical response to make except getting yourself the hell out of that situation. I really can’t see much else in the way of options if they want to survive the next election cycles. Just blaming Russia and Putin for everything has already started to wear thin with electorates.

I used to have a friend who was good company to be around. A meal, a joke and a laugh with his mates on a weekend night out but after a while an unpleasant pattern developed. Nights in his company began to always end with altercations or outright fist fights. Supporting a friend who’s under attack is one thing, but coming to the aid of one who’s constantly picking fights is another thing entirely. After one too many Saturday nights like that, I started to decline his offers to get together. It took a while, but he finally got the message and we went our separate ways.

Apart from a few war crazy politicians like Ursula von der Leyen and Liz Truss, a lot of people in Europe are starting to think that America, like him, has become a dangerous liability to have as a friend.

©Pointman

Related articles by Pointman:

Remind me again, which country’s economy was sanctions going to devastate?

The Ukraine war – the military realities.

All articles about the Ukraine situation

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Filed under Article · Tagged with China, India, Russia, Ukraine