The Ukraine war – Russia modifies its tactics.

America’s proxy war against Russia is proving to be a disaster for both America and the world in general. It’s a two-pronged attack, one being a concerted effort to destroy the Russian economy and the other one an indirect military action to kill as many Russian soldiers as possible by supplying the Ukraine with what seems an endless stream of armaments.

There are some common points to note about both approaches. The first is the propaganda they come with is first class and if you believe it, which bizarrely most seemingly sensible people do, then it’s all a great success when in fact they’re both massive failures. The second is that neither strategy was thought through or if it was, it was by people woefully ignorant of both economics or warfare.

I covered the absolutely disastrous boomerang effect of the sanctions policy on western economies in a previous piece but just to underline the realities, if you’d deposited a lump of cash in a Gazprom bank account denominated in rubles just before Russia invaded the Ukraine, you’d have become about 30% richer in the last few months alone. That’s a bet I’d let ride as well.

Basically, sanctions have crashed the dollar and every other currency in the world, except for the ruble which now looks well on the way to becoming the world’s commodity-backed reserve currency in a few years. In the West, we’re on a return to the 1970s. Stagflation. Zero or negative economic growth accompanied by run away inflation. The propaganda says we’re crippling the Russian economy but the reality is that we’re the ones who managed to kneecap ourselves.

On the military front, the propaganda assures us that the Ukraine is winning hands down. The “ghost of Kiev” is in the air shooting down 40 Russian planes a day, multiple Russian naval vessels are getting sunk by Ukrainian Neptune missiles and the defiant but fallen heroes of Snake Island have all been awarded posthumous medals for refusing to surrender and telling the invading Russian navy to fuck off before they all got blown to bits.

The only problem is that the Ukrainians have since been forced to admit there never was a ghost of Kiev, those supposedly sunken Russian warships keep stubbornly sailing into Black Sea ports unscathed and the heroes of Snake Island actually surrendered straight away and have since been freed in a prisoner exchange. It’s all lies being fed to a gullible Western media by the Ukrainian propaganda ministry via the State Department but regrettably it’s all working. It’s become almost impossible to have a conversation with normally sane people about the Ukraine that contradicts the narrative without being automatically called a stooge of Putin. Propaganda does actually work.

What’s the true situation? In the south, Mariupal is in Russian hands except for what’s left of the Azov battalion who’re hiding in the bowels of seven underground levels of a steel production facility. Penned in and starving. Kiev have assured them of two things according to one of their colonels who’s just surrendered. If they surrender, they’ll be shot but that help is on its way. There’s no help coming, especially through 90 kilometers of dug in Russians just waiting for the Ukrainians to take the bait.

In the east, the Donbass encirclement of an estimated original 60,000 Ukrainian troops is getting the softening up treatment. They’ve had no significant logistical support from their own government since the middle of March when the Russians sprung the trap. Every supermarket and warehouse has been stripped clean by starving soldiers. There’s no air cover, casualty evac, no resupply and all that’s been sent to relieve them is class C units with soldiers of an average age of 40 who the Russians and militias of the Donbass republics are just chewing up.

For the moment, the Russians are just content to rain down on them a non-stop hail of Katyushas and artillery shells while their ground attack aircraft kill anything that moves. When you’ve had enough of that treatment, starving, thirsty and you’ve got nothing to fight back with, you’ll eventually surrender. At that point, the Russian armoured columns will roll in to mop up. The pictures are horrific. What’s being done in the Donbass is a war crime, but it’s not the Russians committing it, it’s Kiev and by proxy the United States. Those men should have long ago surrendered.

As the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhau said, the US is determined to “fight to the last Ukrainian”. That pretty much states the prospects of the Biden administration going into reverse gear. What’s currently happening is murder, plain and simple. At the same time, we have the reality detached maniacs in Kiev announcing nonsense like the only acceptable end to the war will be the Russians capitulating.

In the west of the country, there’s definitely been a change of plan. Instead of just using cruise missile and other projectiles against targets vital to the Ukraine’s military effort, the Russians have gone biblical hitting everything. Bridges, power plants, transmission stations, refining facilities and any utilities necessary to live a modern lifestyle. That’s not their usual style but the decision has obviously been made to move the Ukraine back to a pre-industrial stone age.

The implication is they’ve no intention of totally occupying a total mess like that but whether they take Odessa is moot. It’d landlock the Ukraine and give them another port on the black sea. They’re in no rush, so time will tell.

There are some realities about this war that Westerners really need to think about or at least take into consideration. First, it broke out because the Ukraine with the connivance of the West tried to bluff Putin. We’re going to break all our promises, join NATO, totally ignore the Minsk agreements and move to take back the ground we lost in 2014 and he won’t do anything in response. Wrong. He just invaded. Trying to bluff Putin has a very long and catastrophic history of failure.

Secondly, there never was and still isn’t a point in this war where the Ukrainian military were ever going to prevail against the sheer might of the Russians. They never stood a chance. The Red Army is just taking its own sweet time running every military asset of the Ukraine through a meat grinder. The apparently suicidal orders of Kiev to never surrender and fight to the last bullet suits them right down to the ground. Ignore all the armchair generals; the Russians are not bogged down or running behind some imaginary schedule created by a bunch of foreigners.

Thirdly, all that money being funnelled to the Ukraine is basically being stolen – in the front door and out the back. As for the armament shipments, what use is the 200 T72 tanks donated by Poland? They’re 70’s era technology. The average infantryman these days could successfully attack them with a tin opener. All the other stuff is at least twenty year old technology that simply hasn’t lived up to its sales spiel. The performance of the Javelin, Stinger and Panzerfaust 3 have been disappointing to say the least.

The modern stuff such as the Switchblade suicide drone, the Turkish Bayraktar and other sophisticated devices have proven to be very vulnerable to ECM. To restate that, the Russians seem to be able to hijack it in mid-air and send it back in your direction. Understandably there seems to be a certain reluctance by the teams charged with using them to ever fire the damn things.

Reading Russian intentions is like looking at a Matryoshka doll. Concealed inside that doll is another smaller doll and inside that another one. I’m second guessing what their intentions actually are but I think I’m not far off target. We’ll see.

©Pointman

Related articles by Pointman:

Intentions, profiles and predictability.

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Comments
8 Responses to “The Ukraine war – Russia modifies its tactics.”
  1. hunterson7 says:

    Please let’s not forget that in this demonic menage á trois that all three sides: the Wwet, Putin and Ukraine, are wicked.

    Like

  2. philjourdan says:

    Fourthly, All the PR coming from the West Governments (i.e. the Fake news media) tells us that Russia is toast! And yet they are not.

    I read your posts because I know the Fake news (Fox included) has lied to us and has no clue.

    Keep it coming. Russia never wanted Ukraine, they only wanted to neutralize them! Which they have done. And it is kind of hard to keep paying the bidencartel when you are spending all your money to stay alive.

    Chiefio asked the question “Can Western Democracies survive”.

    My answer is No.

    Like

  3. Richard Ilfeld says:

    While I generally agree with the argument, and certainly the conclusion that the powers pretending to defend the Ukraine can’t do so with the forces they’ve currently chosen to use, I disagree on the future of the US. The ‘establishment’s [I wish we had a better word] grand plan requires a collapse of most institutions to a great depression point with them still in power, to do the last tranche of “reforms to save our democracy” which will, of course, establish a (to them) permanent kleptocracy like California in most of the country. The dollar failing as a reserve is the perfect handmaiden to climate change to create a big enough emergency. There are several risks they failed to account for; the most important of which is that their faith that “demography is destiny” coupled with an institutionalized racism that has resulted in minorities under Democrat control being ill-clothed, ill-housed , and ill-fed is causing a state by state populism to erupt. Florida was gone, even before the current massive stupidity of adopting Castro’s revolutionary slogan for the Dem 2022 election drive.
    The minority vote that was to turn Texas blue is making it more red.
    It is just a matter of time, one thinks, until a State, under the State constitution, declares an emergency and tells the Feds to pound sand. Texas may say, “we don’t like the lights going our and our ranchers running out of gas, we are going to produce, consume, and mange our own energy within the state for the welfare of Texas to counter our energy emergency”. On the other side of the same coin, a blue state will fail at a major task in a major way, and demand massive federal help for a self inflicted wound.
    There are lots of available tipping points, the water in Lake Mead is one, and who knows how many other issues like baby formula are lurking.
    A true populist revolt crosses party lines which is why it is so feared, as the cooperation between the parties in Washington to stymie positive change is a key part of the formula of kleptocracy.
    But Washington paralysis has its good side, in that there aren’t many good responses if a state asserts its constitutional rights; and ignores the bootlicking district court judge that enjoins them in that he/she/it doesn’t have jurisdiction over an intrastate matter; hell we may all have to take a close look at the grotesque stupidity of WIckard v Filburn which would be amazing, cause almost nobody knows the this reed the fed have hung there authority on.
    It isn’t over til it’s over, and adding a stupid and expensive war on the Ukraine border to the other inflicted miseries, especially in counterpoint to the war on the US border, may cause the rise of an unlikely hero. One can hope

    Liked by 2 people

    • philjourdan says:

      @Richard Ilfeld – I like your analysis. But while I agree with you in theory, I fear we are in a came of chicken. We played on 160 years ago ,and the feds won out then, It will take a lot of distaste for the feds to have a chance this time.

      If the ballot box was fair, we could rid ourselves of the plague of globalists. But 2020 showed us that is not the case. Democrats cannot win in a fair election. They only win when they cheat. And they know that, and that is why there will never be another fair election in this country, They cannot tolerate it!

      So we will be at war with Russia because they are NOT globalists my money does not favor that scenario. Democrats do have a way of starting wars to stay in power, and bubble brain is toast, so his war will be the last one this country fights.

      And he will be the last president.

      Like

  4. Prophet says:

    I’m going to sound like pointmans mum… He’s beyond beautiful.

    Liked by 1 person

    • another ian says:

      Hi Pointy

      Way back in BC there was a saying “Think – it might be a new experience”.

      Quite a list here that some higher pay grade people ought to read.

      “Understand This About War…”

      https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=245855

      And there was a post the other day pointing out that Russia is doing quite well with minimal imports

      Like

  5. another ian says:

    Pointy

    Some of today’s FWIW

    “Escobar: Death By A Thousand Cuts – Where Is The West’s Ukraine Strategy?”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-death-thousand-cuts-where-wests-ukraine-strategy

    “At Least 300 Azov Fighters Surrender To Russians At Azovstal Plant, Ending Lengthy Siege”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/military/least-300-azov-fighters-surrender-russians-azovstal-plant-ending-lengthy-siege

    Both via Jo Nova comments

    Like

  6. another ian says:

    More FWIW

    “TRUDEAU’S BOY ISN’T ALONE—A U.S. ADMIRAL, A GENERAL, A BRITISH LT. COLONEL AND NATO BRASS ALSO SURRENDERED IN MARIUPOL”

    https://richardsonpost.com/howellwoltz/27054/western-leaders-tied-to-ukraine-bioweapons-labs/

    Elsewhere this got a response of “No UK officers serving in Ukraine unless nercenaries” – but IIRC there was no piss up at No 10 either until there was

    And what you could call “painting a scene” –

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/not-the-best-look-reuters-report-on-ukraine-driving-russian-soldiers-out-includes-glaring-photographic-mistake

    Like that advertisement for “bomb proof Ukrainian glass and stucco” of a while back

    Like

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