Why the IPCC hesitates.

Posted by Pointman on January 10, 2014 · 9 Comments 

This is a guest piece by one of our regular commenters, Graeme No.3 – enjoy!

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The release of the IPCC Fifth Report has been accompanied by a barrage of criticism. “The latest IPCC report has truly sunk to the level of hilarious incoherence”

Some critics have settled on the fiddled graphs, dodgy statistics and weasel wording and the usual misleading stuff (“appears ready to make the same presentation of climate model failures”  “the old propaganda trick”  “the grossest misrepresentation of data ever published”). There is little doubt that had he not been otherwise occupied, then Rolf Harris would be leading the audience in a rousing chorus of “turn the IPCC loose, Bruce, they ain’t no further use”.

Other critics are astounded by the IPCC claim of the missing heat being stored in the deep ocean. How can they say that the deep oceans are warming when there are no temperature measurements?  How can they measure temperature to hundreds of a degree?  Non existent historical data, non existent current data, unbelievable claimed accuracy and no mechanism proved or otherwise, and we are expected to swallow these claims?

All this is a little overwhelming for the supporters of the IPCC. More used to basking in praise and adulation, and faced with criticism from all quarters they are showing signs of panic. Demands for some credible mechanism are strident. The IPCC doesn’t have much expertise in providing believable explanations, preferring, indeed demanding that critics should be silent and meekly kowtow.  Why didn’t they see this coming?

They did see it coming. They did see their predictions (sorry, projections) going wrong. Remember Keith Trenberth’s e-mail about the ‘travesty of not finding the missing heat’?

Already, by 2006, the inner ring of climatologists could see that things weren’t going as predicted by them. The hockey stick had just been debunked beyond credible usage, there had been adverse comments about temperature adjustments and on top of that temperatures had stalled. They had already decided what to say in the Fourth Report, but there was a rising tide of scepticism and to keep going much longer after Copenhagen they realized they would need an alibi.

What explanation could they come up with for the missing heat?  The good old idea “it’s where we cannot see it” led them to decide it was at the bottom of the oceans. They decided to put some there.

They built a vast Geo-engineering plant beneath the University of East Anglia, and manned and controlled by scientists from the Hadley Institute. Huge pumps bring cold water from the ocean into tunnels below the surface where it is warmed by a flow of hot air from Norfolk, before being pumped back again to the very bottom of the oceans.

Vast amounts of electricity are required and it was to supply this need that the UK Government installed cables bringing nuclear energy from France, not to patch up their lunatic energy policy of relying on variable and unpredictable wind turbines to supply steady power.

The vast amount of heat extracted around Norfolk results in a large cold air mass which is blown by winds all over the UK and Europe. Originally they counted on a lot of hot air from the Hadley Institute but they, not for the first time, miscalculated.  The plant started in 2007 before breaking down. It did so again in 2008, but operations have been almost continuous since then. This  explains why the winters in the UK and Europe have been noticeably colder in recent years.

The plant was temporarily shut down in June 2013 to allow the controlling scientists to attend the various meetings debating what to cover up, and how, in the recent Summary for Decision Makers.  Did you notice how quickly summer warmed up? It is back in operation now, hence those predictions of a cold winter coming.

It also explains why the IPCC is so certain that the missing heat is at the bottom of the ocean; they put it there. Or rather they hope they put it there, because measurements didn’t show any warming of the ocean deeps. By the beginning of 2013 with the Fifth Report due, they became desperate. They had to find the missing heat.

Maintenance workers were increasingly reluctant to enter the vast network of tunnels, claiming that they heard strange, unearthly noises. Suddenly the scientists realized that the Earth had been invaded by aliens; Neptune was stealing heat from Earth! It was the only explanation they could think of!

Quickly they assembled some left wing protestors from the nearest anti-frakking camp to remove the Neptunian presence. There had been no evidence of weapons so the Arthur Scargill International Brigade entered the tunnels with pick handles ready to debate with the invaders. Two hours later they returned asking for Membership Application forms for UKIP. The Neptunians had used mind control.

Obviously they needed creatures resistant to this. Swiftly orders were sent to level 10,000 square miles of tropical forest in Borneo under the guise of planting oil palms for bio-fuel. The real reason was, of course, to obtain as many Orangutans as they could. Things did not go so smoothly. The surviving Orangutans fled into the untouched forests in Malaysia, where the new Governor was unsympathetic to green organizations. Coming into office with a reputation for honesty, he had expected that reputation to be worth a 50% premium on the usual bribe, but inexperienced World Wide Greens operators decided bribery was too risky. The Governor had lost face and was uncooperative, especially as messages of support flowed in from those old fashioned environmentalists who believed in saving tropical forests and the threatened species resident there.

The surviving orangutans (only 1 left alive of 6 is the usual ratio) were transferred to Europe, but were too small in number for the intended project. Looking round for creatures with minds that could never be changed, the IPCC settled on the declining numbers of Green Politicians in Europe. Swiftly they were rounded up and despatched into the tunnels. There they were greeted by the aliens pet Plutonian dogs. Looking entirely like the Disney character (how had Walt known?) except they were bright purple in colour. They greeted the politicians affectionately, and the Green Politicians, unused to a friendly reception, petted them in return and tolerated their licking.

Unfortunately the saliva contained substances similar to snake venom, leading to a sudden shortage of green politicians. In a desperate coverup the orangutans were clothed and sent to the various parliaments as replacements. Apart from one or two comments in the conservative papers about the more responsible and intelligent approach now being adopted by the Greens, nobody noticed the substitutions. Don’t believe me? Next time you see a green politician eating a banana, look closely, especially if he’s wearing a hat. Can you tell the difference?

By now the IPCC were desperate and at their wits end; the Fifth Report was due and they had no evidence to back their claims. Hence their decision to shut down the plant and assemble all their scientific support to defend the Summary for Policy Makers. They decided there was only one force that could settle the matter and Greenpeace supplied a crack platoon of “peaceful” demonstrators. They stormed into the tunnels and there were a few yelps as they disposed of any animals in the way in the usual ruthless Greenpeace manner. After that nothing happened. Complete silence. They disappeared for weeks until suddenly there they were, climbing up a Russian oil rig in the Arctic.

But were they the Greenpeace group? Had they been programmed? The usual exalted press release demanding their return was made but with heavy hearts and forebodings. A private communication channel was set up but the message back was computer translated as suggesting they “establish friendly relations with Uranus”. Were the detainees really from Greenpeace or were they shape-shifters from Saturn? Worse, could they be Chinese coal miners bent on sabotaging Kyoto 2?

In any Greenpeace group there is one zealot selected as the staunchest, unyielding believer, but not necessarily the declared leader. He can be relied on to keep going when others falter. In the detainees this was a tall gaunt redheaded Canadian whose passport named him as Marion John Wayne, although thanks to his mixed French – English ancestry his real name was Pettarde. He was the reliable opinion that Greenpeace needed.  Direct communication was difficult. Unofficial feelers went out but to the amazement of Greenpeace, Russians didn’t see US dollars or Euros as having any lasting value.

Grimly Greenpeace evaluated the suggested alternatives; they had plenty of Swiss Francs in the vaults but Greenpeace is notoriously reluctant to disperse these. Gold sovereigns would take too long to assemble, so an underling, protesting bitterly about his beliefs, was sent to purchase 500 McDonalds vouchers. Indeed so furious was he that he committed suicide 2 days later, jumping from the top of a tall building, apparently aiming for the ground floor McDonalds. He missed, but gained a moral victory by taking out their rubbish dumper.

A steady stream of BigMac vouchers headed for Murmansk. As the last of these were disgorged success was achieved. The message back was quickly read and panic set in. Agent Owen had been turned!!!  In a diabolical move the Russians had placed the Greenpeace members in cells heated ONLY by renewable energy, promising them gas fires once they cooperated. Two days were the most that Agent Owen could take before he cracked. Not even nude skiing in the Yukon had hardened him to these conditions. And he made it quite plain that every other detainee had switched to gas fires.

Hurriedly a meeting of the governing Council that controls Greenpeace was called. The members, the Elders as they were known colloquially, sat the next day. The CIA man was no use, merely shaking his head and saying “Obama won’t like this”. The two Oil Company  men were blunt, there would be no more money if the detainees returned sounding like salesmen for Gazprom. The EU representative ruled out assassinating the detainees as they returned, as much too difficult diplomatically.

The Elders issued guidance for senior Greenpeace personnel with a protocol (Yes, one of the Secret Protocols of the Elders of Greenpeace) calling for intransigence with Russia. Arrogant messages and demands to Putin and demonstrations irritating to the Russians were designed to prolong the detainees stay in Russia.

And that is why the IPCC hesitates. Until Agent Owen and the rest of the detainees return, they won’t know if the missing heat has really gone where they sent it. The uncertainty makes them nervous, hesitant and unconvincing. Worse the revelation that they sent 3 billion down a purpose built drain in order to stuff up the climate and push up already high electricity bills really would generate some dangerous heating.

Greenpeace fear the loss of prestige and influence if they don’t get the detainees back, but even more they fear the ridicule if they come back denouncing renewable energy. Greenpeace have been hoist by their Owen Pettarde.

©Graeme No.3

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