The death of the AGW belief system.

If you’re tracking the collapse of belief in AGW around the world as closely as I am, it’s important to recognize that what you’re actually looking at is the collapse of a belief system. The progress and pathology of this phenomenon has been documented and reliably understood for some time. I say reliably understood because it did not originate from Freud, Jung, the Id, the Ego (super or otherwise) or any other school of psyco-babble psychology fashionable at the time. Don’t get me wrong, Psychology is a very useful tool but too many psychologists don’t seem to know which end to hold it by.

If you’re a climate scientist, look away now. It came from something called the scientific method. A phenomenon was observed several times. Certain recurring patterns were noticed. A hypothesis was put forward. It was checked against the previous studies to see if it accurately reflected the results already known. In the main it did but where it diverged, amendments were made to the hypothesis so it would reflect the real world. Note, the hypothesis was changed not the data.

The next step was to see if it could accurately describe what would happen when the phenomenon next occurred. When this was done, where it diverged, the hypothesis was amended and again rechecked against the historical data. It went around this loop until it was thought robust enough to be advanced as a theory. This was done by submitting it for peer review and publication. The peer reviewers (are you climate guys still looking away?) were not cronies of the authors. After some debate, it got through and a theory was born. But it would never and could never be anything more than a theory.

A theory stays a theory until ONE person proves it wrong or it is supplanted by a better one. The Ptolemaic theory was used for 1500 years to accurately predict the moon, seasons and planetary movements, among many things, but it had a central flaw. The Earth moved around the Sun, not the other way round. And that’s why, when it comes to theories, the science is never “settled”.

This is what’s ahead for the true believers. There are five stages to it though there may be multi-stage iterations within the five and the interior stages may overlap or sometimes be out of sequence. People also go through them at different rates.

1) Denial – A total refusal to see, believe or accept what has happened.

2) Anger – Blaming someone else, oneself, everyone else or anything else for what has happened. The deeper the belief, the more vehement this stage is.

3) Bargaining – Believing that you can still do some trading to keep all, something or at least a shred of the collapsing structure. eg concessions, scapegoats, prayer.

4) Depression – It can’t be stopped. Apathy, depression, tiredness, feeling unfairly punished.

5) Acceptance – Utter Calm. It’s all over. Death.

Sad to say, the original studies were done on terminally ill patients and then extended over into work on belief systems, bereavement, deprogramming and other areas.

This is the course of the pathology you’re seeing right now and in the coming years.

© Pointman

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19 Responses to “The death of the AGW belief system.”
  1. Blackswan says:


    Not everyone who espouses CAGW theory actually believes it. So many of the proponents are steeped in self-interest and it is they who are the most vociferous abusers of Climate Realists.

    True, they too will progress through the five stages you describe, but their Denial, Anger and Bargaining will centre around seeing their lucrative incomes and privileged life-styles slipping away.

    True believers genuinely fear for the planet and future generations and their fear and guilt will continue to be manipulated, heightened and used by the cynical architects of this fraudulent theory. Acceptance will eventually come when the cash spigot finally slows to a trickle and stops – then the Depression will set in for all, as the parasites quickly shrivel and fall from their hosts and the believers are left bereft of a cause that gives their lives meaning.

    There is no real delight for Realists in achieving a victory for pure science and plain common sense. The process you describe doesn’t paint a very happy picture for the future. Perhaps our energies could then be well-spent in demanding the CAGW architects be made accountable for their fraud and theft of public monies.

    A little retribution will cheer us all up no end.


    • Edward. says:

      I think you are right on!!……………………As ever swanny, however, let us not argue the toss between Bro’s.
      Life is too short lad.
      You know, I admire you both, let it be. (please).


    • Pointman says:

      Hiya Swan and welcome to this quiet backwater of the Blogosphere. You’re quite right of course, the topic refers to the real believers not the politicals. They always knew it was about the power of nightmares. See this and be aware it comes from the State of the Nation speech at the end of last year. They all knew it was alarmism. Watch for all them smiling …



    • mlpinaus says:

      A little retribution will cheer us all up no end.

      Now there is a thought….. I’d rather a little violence though…. or ridicule for the pollies… or obscurity for the “settled” scientists. Something.


    • karabar says:

      Let’s hope that your assessment is correct and that it is illustrated in the coming election in Tasmania March 15. I know that it is too much to hope for, since the Gidding-cloward-piven reality is in play on this island, but I am optimistic that the next Greens convention will be held in a phone booth.


  2. Edward. says:

    I simply wish, that I could put together words…………………………. in the same symmetry, alas(?!!), not to be…………………………. thus, thank you Pointy!
    Another………………………….Master (along with) , Zerk, Scud, Locusts, N…………..blimey…………….. (true wordsmiths).

    I am in your debt and (THAT) be no mistake, for, I DO NOT TELL LIES ( humble though, I ain’t:>))) ).


  3. Blackswan says:

    G’day Pointy,

    Thought you might like the latest from Aussie journo Andrew Bolt………..

    //THE great global warming scare is dying not with a bang, or even a whimper. Try a great horse laugh……

    Prof Gary Egger from our Southern Cross University is to tell the summit that he’s got $390,000 from the Gillard Government to test the first such ration scheme on Norfolk Island…// (now there’s a familiar name)

    A Great Big Horse Laugh………I like that – maybe ridicule is a cheerier way to go.


  4. Pointman says:

    If you live in the UK or Eastern Europe, this is a severe weather warning from people who have a much better track record than those clowns at the Met. Office. Let’s be safe out there.



  5. Difficult to believe that these twits enraptured by the cult of AGW would give up so easily. I rather suspect they will shift over to violent mode as did the tuition strikers.

    Wonderful site, BTW, Pointman. Super work, as ever.


  6. orkneylad says:

    Great stuff Pointman, nice site. 🙂



  7. Greg says:

    The climate scare is cyclic. In the 70s there was the scare of global cooling, prior to that it was warming, and there were warming and cooling scares before that. Assuming the climate actually does cycle down (get a bit cooler) over the next few years I think we can count on two things: 1) a resurgence of the “global cooling” scares and 2) a denial that any real scientists were involved in the warming scare. (Which they said about the cooling scare. )

    Here’s a pdf on the media reports over the last 100 years and a few more links to other news reports.


    • Gregoryno6 says:

      Point 2 resonates with me. The state of Victoria had a Labor ie socialist government during the 1980s which left it in bad shape. I still recall the political commentator (left-leaning himself) who, when asked if the end of Joan Kirner meant the end of socialism, blithely replied that HE didn’t think the Kirner government had been a socialist government in the true sense of the word for several years.
      The theory was perfect; it was those who applied it who failed.


  8. Reisen says:

    It’s 2012. Is it still dying? Maybe, but it’s still around and people still believe it.


  9. Bulaman says:

    I have had the opportunity to meet Climate negotiators from Kiribati and Tuvalu at an Island hotel while they were in transit. After several hours of “negotiation” they both admitted it is a scam to get them more money. They did not know or care if the climate was making any difference but they did know there might be money in it so they were balls to the wall all for that!!
    Resistance usually collapsed at about 8 beers.


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